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High-speed rail, expressways, and revitalization after the Great East Japan Earthquake

Author

Listed:
  • Yoo, Sunbin
  • Kumagai, Junya
  • Zheng, Longfei
  • Kim, Sung Hoo
  • Jung, Paul H.
  • Chang, Zheng

Abstract

This paper examines whether restoring connectivity fosters medium-run post-disaster revitalization in Japan’s Tohoku region after the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. We measure connectivity using mode-specific Market Access (MA)–a travel-time–weighted index of how easily places can reach people and markets–separately for high-speed rail (HSR) and expressways, controlling for air connectivity. Using city-year data (2006–2020), we estimate fixed-effects regressions and address endogeneity with 2SLS, instrumenting realized MA with least-cost, terrain-based hypothetical networks built via a spanning-tree algorithm. We find that expressway connectivity delivers larger and more robust gains, particularly for population and manufacturing-related outcomes, while HSR effects are smaller and more localized near major hubs. Buffer-based MA and Sendai-exclusion tests show that HSR gains attenuate quickly with distance, whereas expressway benefits persist. Counterfactual “no-recovery” simulations imply notable 2020 secondary GDP losses without restoration (about 0.13% for HSR and 0.21% for expressways). Overall, the results provide causal evidence that restoring connectivity is central to diffusing revitalization beyond core nodes after large disasters.

Suggested Citation

  • Yoo, Sunbin & Kumagai, Junya & Zheng, Longfei & Kim, Sung Hoo & Jung, Paul H. & Chang, Zheng, 2026. "High-speed rail, expressways, and revitalization after the Great East Japan Earthquake," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:212:y:2026:i:c:s0965856426002983
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2026.105157
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • R1 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • L92 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Railroads and Other Surface Transportation

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