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Ascertaining a hierarchy of dimensions from time-poor experts: Linking tactical vignettes to strategic scenarios

Author

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  • Pincombe, Brandon
  • Blunden, Sarah
  • Pincombe, Adrian
  • Dexter, Patricia

Abstract

Many organisations define or express their strategic direction through strategic scenarios, which typically lack the detail for operational or tactical decisions. However such decisions need to be consistent with the organisation's overall strategic direction. We present a method for defining a dimensional hierarchy of important variables at the strategic, operational and tactical levels and illustrate this method with a case study. Achieving a set of dimensions as comprehensive as possible requires the saturation of ideas from all relevant expert groups. Unfortunately, access to experts may be limited and sporadic. We facilitate expert participation through an online, iterative, Delphi-like structured group technique allowing asynchronous access from many separate locations. Inter-round thematic analysis removes duplicate argumentation, standardises language conventions and builds a hierarchy of important variables: strategic dimensions; operational components; and tactical elements. Iteration allows experts to assess and alter these themes. Anonymity and thematic de-duplication allow merit-based discussion by masking the status and numbers of advocates. In our case study, sixty-nine experts developed a hierarchical dimensionalisation of future Australian Army deployment contexts over three rounds with a total median time commitment of less than 3h per expert.

Suggested Citation

  • Pincombe, Brandon & Blunden, Sarah & Pincombe, Adrian & Dexter, Patricia, 2013. "Ascertaining a hierarchy of dimensions from time-poor experts: Linking tactical vignettes to strategic scenarios," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 584-598.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:80:y:2013:i:4:p:584-598
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.05.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Wright, George & Cairns, George & O'Brien, Frances A. & Goodwin, Paul, 2019. "Scenario analysis to support decision making in addressing wicked problems: Pitfalls and potential," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 278(1), pages 3-19.
    2. Metz, Ashley & Hartley, Paul, 2020. "Scenario development as valuation: Opportunities for reflexivity," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    3. Cairns, George & Wright, George & Fairbrother, Peter, 2016. "Promoting articulated action from diverse stakeholders in response to public policy scenarios: A case analysis of the use of ‘scenario improvisation’ method," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 97-108.
    4. Cairns, George & Wright, George & Fairbrother, Peter & Phillips, Richard, 2017. "‘Branching scenarios’ seeking articulated action for regional regeneration – A case study of limited success," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 189-202.
    5. Chang, Suk-Gwon, 2015. "A structured scenario approach to multi-screen ecosystem forecasting in Korean communications market," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 1-20.
    6. Ramboarison-Lalao, Lovanirina & Gannouni, Kais, 2019. "Liberated firm, a leverage of well-being and technological change? A prospective study based on the scenario method," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 129-139.

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