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A practical method for accurate quantification of large fault trees

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  • Choi, Jong Soo
  • Cho, Nam Zin

Abstract

This paper describes a practical method to accurately quantify top event probability and importance measures from incomplete minimal cut sets (MCS) of a large fault tree. The MCS-based fault tree method is extensively used in probabilistic safety assessments. Several sources of uncertainties exist in MCS-based fault tree analysis. The paper is focused on quantification of the following two sources of uncertainties: (1) the truncation neglecting low-probability cut sets and (2) the approximation in quantifying MCSs. The method proposed in this paper is based on a Monte Carlo simulation technique to estimate probability of the discarded MCSs and the sum of disjoint products (SDP) approach complemented by the correction factor approach (CFA). The method provides capability to accurately quantify the two uncertainties and estimate the top event probability and importance measures of large coherent fault trees. The proposed fault tree quantification method has been implemented in the CUTREE code package and is tested on the two example fault trees.

Suggested Citation

  • Choi, Jong Soo & Cho, Nam Zin, 2007. "A practical method for accurate quantification of large fault trees," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(7), pages 971-982.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:92:y:2007:i:7:p:971-982
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2006.07.005
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    Cited by:

    1. Briš, Radim, 2010. "Exact reliability quantification of highly reliable systems with maintenance," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(12), pages 1286-1292.
    2. Woo Sik Jung, 2021. "A Method to Avoid Underestimated Risks in Seismic SUPSA and MUPSA for Nuclear Power Plants Caused by Partitioning Events," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-13, April.
    3. Miroslav Kvassay & Vitaly Levashenko & Elena Zaitseva, 2016. "Analysis of minimal cut and path sets based on direct partial Boolean derivatives," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 230(2), pages 147-161, April.
    4. Jung, Woo Sik, 2015. "A method to improve cutset probability calculation in probabilistic safety assessment of nuclear power plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 134-142.
    5. Gisliany Alves & Danielle Marques & Ivanovitch Silva & Luiz Affonso Guedes & Maria da Guia da Silva, 2019. "A Methodology for Dependability Evaluation of Smart Grids," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-23, May.

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