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Time-dependent fragility analysis and risk assessment of nuclear containment structure subjected to internal pressure considering chloride-induced corrosion of reinforcing steel

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  • Jin, Song
  • Xu, Shanjie
  • Shen, Tong
  • Wang, Hao
  • Cao, Xuyang
  • Jia, Hongbin

Abstract

This study carried out time-dependent fragility analysis and risk assessment of nuclear containment structure subjected to internal pressure based on Kernel Density Estimation (KDE). The accuracy and efficiency of the proposed methodology were demonstrated by fragility analysis of ring-stiffened cylinder structure subjected to hydrostatic pressure. Then, the proposed methodology is applied to time-dependent fragility analysis and risk evaluation of the nuclear containment structure during the service life. Detailed time-dependent chloride-induced corrosion model considering uncertainties involved in environment and material properties is formulated. Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) is employed to generate stochastic samples of nuclear containment structure, and nonlinear finite element simulation of nuclear containment structure for different service time is performed. The proposed KDE methodology is adopted to analyze time-dependent fragility, with the Cumulative Conditional Failure Probability (CCFP) serving as the metric to quantify probabilistic safety performance of nuclear containment structure for different service time. Results indicated that the KDE approach provides higher accuracy in fitting fragility curves compared to conventional parametric method. Nuclear containment structure in this study meets probabilistic safety margins during long-term service conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Jin, Song & Xu, Shanjie & Shen, Tong & Wang, Hao & Cao, Xuyang & Jia, Hongbin, 2026. "Time-dependent fragility analysis and risk assessment of nuclear containment structure subjected to internal pressure considering chloride-induced corrosion of reinforcing steel," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 266(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:266:y:2026:i:pa:s0951832025009366
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111736
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jin, Song & Gong, Jinxin, 2021. "Fragility analysis and probabilistic performance evaluation of nuclear containment structure subjected to internal pressure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    2. Pang, Rui & Zai, Dezhi & Xu, Bin & Liu, Jun & Zhao, Chunfeng & Fan, Qunying & Chen, Yuting, 2023. "Stochastic dynamic and reliability analysis of AP1000 nuclear power plants via DPIM subjected to mainshock-aftershock sequences," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    3. Xiao, Xiao & Song, Meiqi & Liu, Xiaojing, 2025. "A reliable and adaptive prediction framework for nuclear power plant system through an improved Transformer model and Bayesian uncertainty analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    4. Zheng, Zhi & Tian, Aonan & Pan, Xiaolan & Ji, Duofa & Wang, Yong, 2024. "The damage-based fragility analysis and probabilistic safety assessment of containment under internal pressure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    5. Seyed Mojtaba Hoseyni & Seyed Mohsen Hoseyni & Faramarz Yousefpour & Kaveh Karimi, 2017. "Probabilistic analysis of containment structural performance in severe accidents," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 8(3), pages 625-634, September.
    6. Li, Xinbo & Gong, Jinxin, 2024. "Probabilistic evaluation of the leak-tightness function of the nuclear containment structure subjected to internal pressure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    7. Saxena, Sanchit & Kumar, Suman & Sharma, Hrishikesh, 2025. "A novel computational framework for efficient nuclear containment design: Structural integrity, radiation shielding, and reliability assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    8. Hariri-Ardebili, Mohammad Amin, 2020. "Safety and reliability assessment of heterogeneous concrete components in nuclear structures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    9. Duong, Tarn, 2007. "ks: Kernel Density Estimation and Kernel Discriminant Analysis for Multivariate Data in R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 21(i07).
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