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A systematic approach to estimate an inter-unit common-cause failure probability

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  • Soga, Shota
  • Higo, Eishiro
  • Miura, Hiromichi

Abstract

Inter-unit common-cause failure (CCF) analysis is one of the technical issues for a probabilistic risk assessment for multiple nuclear reactors in a site. It is because inter-unit CCF events are rare and the symmetric assumption in intraunit CCF analysis is no longer valid. To overcome these difficulties, we propose a systematic approach to estimate the inter-unit CCF probability using conventional CCF databases and engineering judgments. The proposed approach explicitly considers two sources of asymmetry in inter-unit CCF: the commonalities of common-cause coupling factors and surveillance tests. The proposed approach starts from a symmetric CCF probability of components under a nonstaggered test scheme and extends it to take the asymmetry into account. The proposed approach is applied to the CCF analysis of the hypothetical case of three nonidentical emergency diesel generators and is compared with the conventional CCF analysis. The proposed approach can reduce the conservativeness in the inter-unit CCF probabilities estimated by the conventional CCF analysis and improve the quality of multiunit probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), where inter-unit CCF events significantly contribute to the site risk. The proposed approach demonstrates its applicability to an inter-unit CCF analysis where the asymmetries play an important role in inter-unit CCF probability.

Suggested Citation

  • Soga, Shota & Higo, Eishiro & Miura, Hiromichi, 2021. "A systematic approach to estimate an inter-unit common-cause failure probability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:215:y:2021:i:c:s0951832021003252
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2021.107802
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. O’Connor, Andrew & Mosleh, Ali, 2016. "A general cause based methodology for analysis of common cause and dependent failures in system risk and reliability assessments," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 341-350.
    2. Vaurio, Jussi K., 2005. "Uncertainties and quantification of common cause failure rates and probabilities for system analyses," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 186-195.
    3. Jang, Seunghyun & Jae, Moosung, 2020. "A development of methodology for assessing the inter-unit common cause failure in multi-unit PSA model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    4. KanÄ ev, DuÅ¡ko & ÄŒepin, Marko, 2012. "A new method for explicit modelling of single failure event within different common cause failure groups," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 84-93.
    5. Kim, Dong-San & Park, Jin Hee & Lim, Ho-Gon, 2020. "A pragmatic approach to modeling common cause failures in multi-unit PSA for nuclear power plant sites with a large number of units," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    6. Le Duy, Tu Duong & Vasseur, Dominique, 2018. "A practical methodology for modeling and estimation of common cause failure parameters in multi-unit nuclear PSA model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 159-174.
    7. Modarres, Mohammad & Zhou, Taotao & Massoud, Mahmoud, 2017. "Advances in multi-unit nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 87-100.
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    Cited by:

    1. Takeda, Satoshi & Kitada, Takanori, 2023. "Importance measure evaluation based on sensitivity coefficient for probabilistic risk assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    2. Kim, Yongjin & Jang, Seunghyun & Jae, Moosung, 2022. "Evaluation of inter-unit dependency effect on site core damage frequency: Internal and seismic event," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    3. Yoon, Jae Young & Kim, Dong-San, 2022. "Estimating the adverse effects of inter-unit radioactive release on operator actions at a multi-unit site," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).

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