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A robust Bayesian approach to modeling epistemic uncertainty in common-cause failure models

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  • Troffaes, Matthias C.M.
  • Walter, Gero
  • Kelly, Dana

Abstract

In a standard Bayesian approach to the alpha-factor model for common-cause failure, a precise Dirichlet prior distribution models epistemic uncertainty in the alpha-factors. This Dirichlet prior is then updated with observed data to obtain a posterior distribution, which forms the basis for further inferences.

Suggested Citation

  • Troffaes, Matthias C.M. & Walter, Gero & Kelly, Dana, 2014. "A robust Bayesian approach to modeling epistemic uncertainty in common-cause failure models," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 13-21.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:125:y:2014:i:c:p:13-21
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2013.05.022
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kelly, Dana & Atwood, Corwin, 2011. "Finding a minimally informative Dirichlet prior distribution using least squares," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 398-402.
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    Cited by:

    1. Walter, Gero & Flapper, Simme Douwe, 2017. "Condition-based maintenance for complex systems based on current component status and Bayesian updating of component reliability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 227-239.
    2. Wang, Chaonan & Xing, Liudong & Levitin, Gregory, 2015. "Probabilistic common cause failures in phased-mission systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 53-60.
    3. Hindolo George-Williams & Geng Feng & Frank PA Coolen & Michael Beer & Edoardo Patelli, 2019. "Extending the survival signature paradigm to complex systems with non-repairable dependent failures," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 233(4), pages 505-519, August.
    4. Leimeister, Mareike & Kolios, Athanasios, 2018. "A review of reliability-based methods for risk analysis and their application in the offshore wind industry," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 1065-1076.
    5. Coolen, Frank P.A. & Coolen-Maturi, Tahani, 2015. "Predictive inference for system reliability after common-cause component failures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 27-33.
    6. Mi, Jinhua & Beer, Michael & Li, Yan-Feng & Broggi, Matteo & Cheng, Yuhua, 2020. "Reliability and importance analysis of uncertain system with common cause failures based on survival signature," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    7. Zhou, Taotao & Droguett, Enrique López & Modarres, Mohammad, 2020. "A common cause failure model for components under age-related degradation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    8. Chemweno, Peter & Pintelon, Liliane & Muchiri, Peter Nganga & Van Horenbeek, Adriaan, 2018. "Risk assessment methodologies in maintenance decision making: A review of dependability modelling approaches," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 64-77.
    9. Min Zhang & Zhijian Zhang & Ali Mosleh & Sijuan Chen, 2017. "Common cause failure model updating for risk monitoring in nuclear power plants based on alpha factor model," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 231(3), pages 209-220, June.

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