IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v527y2019ics0378437119308076.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of solar activity on precipitation in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Nitka, Weronika
  • Burnecki, Krzysztof

Abstract

In this paper we analyze the relationship between the sunspot numbers and the average monthly precipitation measured at meteorological stations in the US. The results indicate that there is a significant correlation between the solar activity and the monthly average precipitation data for selected months and time delays. In order to confirm the relationship, for the precipitation data we check the forecasting abilities of a popular time series model with and without additional information on the sun activity. Namely, first we fit the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series model to the US precipitation data and calculate one-step ahead forecasts. Next, we repeat the same steps with the ARMA model with exogenous input (ARMAX) which is the sunspot number data. We show that the forecast errors are essentially lower for the ARMAX model for months and time delays found in the correlation analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Nitka, Weronika & Burnecki, Krzysztof, 2019. "Impact of solar activity on precipitation in the United States," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 527(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:527:y:2019:i:c:s0378437119308076
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2019.121387
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437119308076
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:527:y:2019:i:c:s0378437119308076. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Haili He). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.