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The daily computed weighted averaging basic reproduction number R0,k,ωn for MERS-CoV in South Korea

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  • Jeong, Darae
  • Lee, Chang Hyeong
  • Choi, Yongho
  • Kim, Junseok

Abstract

In this paper, we propose the daily computed weighted averaging basic reproduction number R0,k,ωn for Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreak in South Korea, May to July 2015. We use an SIR model with piecewise constant parameters β (contact rate) and γ (removed rate). We use the explicit Euler’s method for the solution of the SIR model and a nonlinear least-square fitting procedure for finding the best parameters. In R0,k,ωn, the parameters n, k, and w denote days from a reference date, the number of days in averaging, and a weighting factor, respectively. We perform a series of numerical experiments and compare the results with the real-world data. In particular, using the predicted reproduction number based on the previous two consecutive reproduction numbers, we can predict the future behavior of the reproduction number.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeong, Darae & Lee, Chang Hyeong & Choi, Yongho & Kim, Junseok, 2016. "The daily computed weighted averaging basic reproduction number R0,k,ωn for MERS-CoV in South Korea," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 451(C), pages 190-197.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:451:y:2016:i:c:p:190-197
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2016.01.072
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > MERS

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    Cited by:

    1. Doménech-Carbó, Antonio & Doménech-Casasús, Clara, 2021. "The evolution of COVID-19: A discontinuous approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 568(C).

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