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Similarity is not enough: Tipping points of Ebola Zaire mortalities

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  • Phillips, J.C.

Abstract

In early 2014 an outbreak of a slightly mutated Zaire Ebola subtype appeared in West Africa which is less virulent than 1976 and 1994 strains. The numbers of cases per year appear to be ∼1000 times larger than the earlier strains, suggesting a greatly enhanced transmissibility. Although the fraction of the 2014 spike glycoprotein mutations is very small (∼3%), the mortality is significantly reduced, while the transmission appears to have increased strongly. Bioinformatic scaling had previously shown similar inversely correlated trends in virulence and transmission in N1 (H1N1) and N2 (H3N2) influenza spike glycoprotein mutations. These trends appear to be related to various external factors (migration, availability of pure water, and vaccination programs). The molecular mechanisms for Ebola’s mutational response involve mainly changes in the disordered mucin-like domain (MLD) of its spike glycoprotein amino acids. The MLD has been observed to form the tip of an oligomeric amphiphilic wedge that selectively pries apart cell–cell interfaces via an oxidative mechanism.

Suggested Citation

  • Phillips, J.C., 2015. "Similarity is not enough: Tipping points of Ebola Zaire mortalities," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 427(C), pages 277-281.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:427:y:2015:i:c:p:277-281
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2015.02.056
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jeffrey E. Lee & Marnie L. Fusco & Ann J. Hessell & Wendelien B. Oswald & Dennis R. Burton & Erica Ollmann Saphire, 2008. "Structure of the Ebola virus glycoprotein bound to an antibody from a human survivor," Nature, Nature, vol. 454(7201), pages 177-182, July.
    2. Naumis, G.G. & Phillips, J.C., 2012. "Diffusion of knowledge and globalization in the web of twentieth century science," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(15), pages 3995-4003.
    3. Phillips, J.C., 2014. "Fractals and self-organized criticality in proteins," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 415(C), pages 440-448.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sachdeva, Vedant & Phillips, James C., 2016. "Oxygen channels and fractal wave–particle duality in the evolution of myoglobin and neuroglobin," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 463(C), pages 1-11.

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