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Information cascades and the distribution of economic recessions in capitalist economies

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  • Ormerod, Paul

Abstract

We consider in this paper the distribution of the cumulative size of recessions in 17 capitalist countries over the period 1871–1994, using data on annual percentage changes in real GDP. A recession is defined as a year in which GDP growth is negative, and the cumulative change is the change from peak to trough during a recession period. We examine both the whole sample and different partitions of the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Ormerod, Paul, 2004. "Information cascades and the distribution of economic recessions in capitalist economies," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 341(C), pages 556-568.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:341:y:2004:i:c:p:556-568
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2004.04.109
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    Cited by:

    1. Yashkir, Olga & Yashkir, Yuriy, 2013. "Monitoring of Credit Risk through the Cycle: Risk Indicators," MPRA Paper 46402, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Wenzhi Zheng & Yuting Lou & Yu Chen, 2019. "On the Unsustainable Macroeconomy with Increasing Inequality of Firms Induced by Excessive Liquidity," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-22, May.
    3. Salvador Pueyo, 2013. "Is it a power law distribution? The case of economic contractions," Papers 1310.2567, arXiv.org.
    4. Chu, Zhuang & Yang, Biao & Ha, Chang Yong & Ahn, Kwangwon, 2018. "Modeling GDP fluctuations with agent-based model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 503(C), pages 572-581.

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