When the blanket is too short: Potential negative impacts of expanding indigenous land over a national park in a high priority area for conservation

Land claims by indigenous peoples can cause changes in established protected areas. The consequences of such changes for biodiversity conservation will be context-dependent and influenced by characteristics of the indigenous population as well as the protected area affected. In the Cerrado-Caatinga ecotone of Brazil, there is an ongoing legal process to expand the Xacriabá Indigenous Land. The Xacriabás are claiming an additional 433 km2, which overlaps with one third of Cavernas do Peruaçu National Park. I used local scale data and occupancy modelling to show that expanding this indigenous land at the expense of the already reduced area under strict protection in the Cerrado and Caatinga is likely to decrease the national park’s conservation effectiveness. My analysis suggests that intensification of human presence in the overlapping area between the two land designations will result in loss of native vegetation, increase in the number of fires and might have a negative impact on populations of more sensitive species.