Geographic variation in fertility: evidence from mover design

Declining fertility rates in the U.S. have generated growing concerns about population aging, retirement sustainability, and slower economic growth. This paper examines how place-based factors relate to fertility decisions using a mover design and data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (1969–2019). We document that women who move to states with higher (lower) birth rates subsequently experience higher (lower) fertility, with those moving to states with 1 percentage point higher birth rates (10 births per 1000) showing 0.9 percentage point increases in annual birth probability and 3.8 percentage point increases cumulatively over three years. These patterns are most pronounced among women relocating to lower-fertility states and concentrate primarily on first births, with stronger responses among white, married, younger, and higher-income women. A variance decomposition reveals that place-related factors' contribution to fertility variance increased substantially from 4.7 % to 26.0 % after the Great Recession. State-level contraceptive access and healthcare infrastructure show the strongest correlations with these place-related patterns. The evidence suggests that local context plays an important role in shaping fertility behavior, with potential implications for understanding geographic variation in demographic trends.