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Selective migration and regional decline: Evidence from coal country

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  • Krause, Eleanor

Abstract

Why do regions decline? This paper explores how adverse shocks in one period affect regional adjustment to subsequent shocks, emphasizing the role of selective migration. I leverage differential exposure to coal’s decline and variation in proximity to historical employment shifts to study this process of regional decline in Appalachia. The consequences of the 2007–2017 coal shock were more acute in counties that experienced larger declines in college-educated adults due to exogenous labor demand shifts in the 1980s. These findings indicate that the adverse effects of shocks can accumulate over time, leaving certain regions differentially vulnerable to new challenges.

Suggested Citation

  • Krause, Eleanor, 2026. "Selective migration and regional decline: Evidence from coal country," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:juecon:v:153:y:2026:i:c:s009411902600029x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2026.103858
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    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General
    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General
    • L72 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Other Nonrenewable Resources
    • Q30 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - General
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General

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