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The demographic impact of weather disasters: Evidence from extreme rainfall exposure in rural China

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  • Tian, Wenjie
  • Liu, Jinci
  • Zhou, Kang

Abstract

Using monthly rainfall data, we study the demographic consequences of extreme rainfall variability, focusing on extreme dry and wet events in rural China. We find that both types of extreme rainfall events increase fertility, with a stronger response for male births, between 1990 and 1999. More than a decade later, children who were exposed to extreme rainfall events in utero, especially extreme wet events, attain fewer years of schooling than unexposed cohorts. The second trimester of pregnancy emerges as the critical exposure window, with shocks during this period generating the largest negative effects on adult educational outcomes. Examining potential mechanisms, we show that extreme rainfall events reduce household income and increase child mortality. These results highlight the persistent demographic impacts of extreme weather shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Tian, Wenjie & Liu, Jinci & Zhou, Kang, 2026. "The demographic impact of weather disasters: Evidence from extreme rainfall exposure in rural China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:249:y:2026:i:c:s0167268126002829
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2026.107695
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    JEL classification:

    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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