Mass mobilization and political change: Evidence from Hong Kong

How important are mass protest events in driving political change among citizens? In this paper, I exploit the 2019 Anti-Extradition Law Amendment Bill Movement (ANTI-ELAB protest) in Hong Kong and its impact on the subsequent 2019 Hong Kong District Council Election. Taking advantage of a granular dataset of organized events during the protest, I exploit spatial variation in protest intensity, as measured by the number of events, across Constituency Areas. Empirical results show that in Constituency Areas with higher protest intensity, there were larger increases in voter turnout in the 2019 District Council Election compared to 2015. The effect is primarily driven by local events, suggesting that proximate mobilization and local interactions play a crucial role in shaping political engagement. To strengthen causal interpretation, I employ a set of public transportation accessibility measures as instrumental variables. Additional analyses reveal that protest intensity also affected people’s political stances, leading to a potential (asymmetric) polarization and an overall shift toward the Pro-democracy camp. These findings contribute to the emerging literature on the political consequences of protest and offer new insights into studying within-city-level social unrest.