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Winners and losers of generative AI: Early Evidence of Shifts in Freelancer Demand

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  • Teutloff, Ole
  • Einsiedler, Johanna
  • Kässi, Otto
  • Braesemann, Fabian
  • Mishkin, Pamela
  • del Rio-Chanona, R. Maria

Abstract

We examine how ChatGPT has changed the demand for freelancers in jobs where generative AI tools can act as substitutes or complements to human labor. Using BERTopic we partition job postings from a leading online freelancing platform into 116 fine-grained skill clusters and with GPT-4o we classify them as substitutable, complementary or unaffected by LLMs. Our analysis reveals that labor demand increased after the launch of ChatGPT, but only in skill clusters that were complementary to or unaffected by the AI tool. In contrast, demand for substitutable skills, such as writing and translation, decreased by 20–50% relative to the counterfactual trend, with the sharpest decline observed for short-term (1-3 week) jobs. Within complementary skill clusters, the results are mixed: demand for machine learning programming grew by 24%, and demand for AI-powered chatbot development nearly tripled, while demand for novice workers declined in general. This result suggests a shift toward more specialized expertise for freelancers rather than uniform growth across all complementary areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Teutloff, Ole & Einsiedler, Johanna & Kässi, Otto & Braesemann, Fabian & Mishkin, Pamela & del Rio-Chanona, R. Maria, 2025. "Winners and losers of generative AI: Early Evidence of Shifts in Freelancer Demand," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:235:y:2025:i:c:s0167268124004591
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106845
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    Cited by:

    1. Teutloff Ole & Braesemann Fabian, 2025. "Resilienz statt Reskilling: Wie KI den Arbeitsmarkt verändert und wie wir darauf reagieren müssen," Wirtschaftsdienst, Sciendo, vol. 105(10), pages 715-719.
    2. Binelli, Chiara & Luca, Teresa & Vergolini, Loris & Marconi, Gabriele, 2026. "Disruption or Augmentation? The Changing Demand for AI Skills in the Age of Generative AI," SocArXiv cy2s3_v1, Center for Open Science.
    3. Anais Galdin & Jesse Silbert, 2025. "Making Talk Cheap: Generative AI and Labor Market Signaling," Papers 2511.08785, arXiv.org.

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    JEL classification:

    • C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
    • C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
    • J - Labor and Demographic Economics
    • J - Labor and Demographic Economics
    • J - Labor and Demographic Economics
    • O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth

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