IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/insuma/v46y2010i1p242-253.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Mortality risk modeling: Applications to insurance securitization

Author

Listed:
  • Cox, Samuel H.
  • Lin, Yijia
  • Pedersen, Hal

Abstract

This paper proposes a stochastic mortality model featuring both permanent longevity jump and temporary mortality jump processes. A trend reduction component describes unexpected mortality improvement over an extended period of time. The model also captures the uneven effect of mortality events on different ages and the correlations among them. The model will be useful in analyzing future mortality dependent cash flows of life insurance portfolios, annuity portfolios, and portfolios of mortality derivatives. We show how to apply the model to analyze and price a longevity security.

Suggested Citation

  • Cox, Samuel H. & Lin, Yijia & Pedersen, Hal, 2010. "Mortality risk modeling: Applications to insurance securitization," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 242-253, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:46:y:2010:i:1:p:242-253
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167-6687(09)00129-2
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vaupel, James W, 1998. "Demographic Analysis of Aging and Longevity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 242-247, May.
    2. David Blake & Andrew Cairns & Kevin Dowd & Richard MacMinn, 2006. "Longevity Bonds: Financial Engineering, Valuation, and Hedging," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 73(4), pages 647-672.
    3. Darius Lakdawalla & Tomas Philipson, 2002. "The Rise in Old-Age Longevity and the Market for Long-Term Care," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 295-306, March.
    4. Renshaw, A.E. & Haberman, S. & Hatzopoulos, P., 1996. "The Modelling of Recent Mortality Trends in United Kingdom Male Assured Lives," British Actuarial Journal, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(02), pages 449-477, June.
    5. Helmut Gründl & Thomas Post & Roman N. Schulze, 2006. "To Hedge or Not to Hedge: Managing Demographic Risk in Life Insurance Companies," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 73(1), pages 19-41.
    6. Hári, Norbert & De Waegenaere, Anja & Melenberg, Bertrand & Nijman, Theo E., 2008. "Estimating the term structure of mortality," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 492-504, April.
    7. Biffis, Enrico, 2005. "Affine processes for dynamic mortality and actuarial valuations," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 443-468, December.
    8. Dahl, Mikkel, 2004. "Stochastic mortality in life insurance: market reserves and mortality-linked insurance contracts," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 113-136, August.
    9. Cairns, Andrew J.G. & Blake, David & Dowd, Kevin, 2006. "Pricing Death: Frameworks for the Valuation and Securitization of Mortality Risk," ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the International Actuarial Association, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(01), pages 79-120, May.
    10. Dahl, Mikkel & Moller, Thomas, 2006. "Valuation and hedging of life insurance liabilities with systematic mortality risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 193-217, October.
    11. Ballotta, Laura & Haberman, Steven, 2006. "The fair valuation problem of guaranteed annuity options: The stochastic mortality environment case," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 195-214, February.
    12. Yijia Lin & Samuel H. Cox, 2005. "Securitization of Mortality Risks in Life Annuities," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 72(2), pages 227-252.
    13. Lin, Yijia & Cox, Samuel H., 2008. "Securitization of catastrophe mortality risks," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 628-637, April.
    14. Milevsky, Moshe A. & David Promislow, S., 2001. "Mortality derivatives and the option to annuitise," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 299-318, December.
    15. Samuel H. Cox & Yijia Lin & Shaun Wang, 2006. "Multivariate Exponential Tilting and Pricing Implications for Mortality Securitization," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 73(4), pages 719-736.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Yu-Lieh & Tsai, Jeffrey Tzuhao & Yang, Sharon S. & Cheng, Hung-Wen, 2014. "Price bounds of mortality-linked security in incomplete insurance market," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 30-39.
    2. Enrico Biffis & David Blake & Lorenzo Pitotti & Ariel Sun, 2016. "The Cost of Counterparty Risk and Collateralization in Longevity Swaps," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 83(2), pages 387-419, June.
    3. Hua Chen & Michael Sherris & Tao Sun & Wenge Zhu, 2013. "Living With Ambiguity: Pricing Mortality-Linked Securities With Smooth Ambiguity Preferences," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 80(3), pages 705-732, September.
    4. Truong, Chi & Trück, Stefan, 2016. "It’s not now or never: Implications of investment timing and risk aversion on climate adaptation to extreme events," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 253(3), pages 856-868.
    5. Lin, Tzuling & Tsai, Cary Chi-Liang, 2016. "Hedging mortality/longevity risks of insurance portfolios for life insurer/annuity provider and financial intermediary," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 44-58.
    6. Rui Zhou & Johnny Siu-Hang Li & Ken Seng Tan, 2013. "Pricing Standardized Mortality Securitizations: A Two-Population Model With Transitory Jump Effects," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 80(3), pages 733-774, September.
    7. repec:bla:jrinsu:v:84:y:2017:i:s1:p:345-365 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Huang, Rachel J. & Miao, Jerry C.Y. & Tzeng, Larry Y., 2013. "Does mortality improvement increase equity risk premiums? A risk perception perspective," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 67-77.
    9. Ahmadi, Seyed Saeed & Li, Johnny Siu-Hang, 2014. "Coherent mortality forecasting with generalized linear models: A modified time-transformation approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 194-221.
    10. David Blake & Christophe Courbage & Richard MacMinn & Michael Sherris, 2011. "Longevity Risk and Capital Markets: The 2010–2011 Update," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 36(4), pages 489-500, October.
    11. Raj Kumari Bahl & Sotirios Sabanis, 2016. "Model-Independent Price Bounds for Catastrophic Mortality Bonds," Papers 1607.07108, arXiv.org.
    12. Liu, Yanxin & Li, Johnny Siu-Hang, 2015. "The age pattern of transitory mortality jumps and its impact on the pricing of catastrophic mortality bonds," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 135-150.
    13. David Blake & Andrew Cairns & Guy Coughlan & Kevin Dowd & Richard MacMinn, 2013. "The New Life Market," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 80(3), pages 501-558, September.
    14. Lin, Yijia & MacMinn, Richard D. & Tian, Ruilin, 2015. "De-risking defined benefit plans," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 52-65.
    15. Wang, Zihe & Li, Johnny Siu-Hang, 2016. "A DCC-GARCH multi-population mortality model and its applications to pricing catastrophic mortality bonds," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 103-111.
    16. Yijia Lin & Sheen Liu & Jifeng Yu, 2013. "Pricing Mortality Securities With Correlated Mortality Indexes," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 80(4), pages 921-948, December.
    17. Ai, Jing & Brockett, Patrick L. & Jacobson, Allen F., 2015. "A new defined benefit pension risk measurement methodology," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 40-51.
    18. repec:lrk:eeaart:35_2_7 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Samuel H. Cox & Yijia Lin & Ruilin Tian & Jifeng Yu, 2013. "Managing Capital Market and Longevity Risks in a Defined Benefit Pension Plan," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 80(3), pages 585-620, September.
    20. Blake, David & Brockett, Patrick & Cox, Samuel & MacMinn, Richard, 2011. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2009-2010 update," MPRA Paper 28868, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Lin, Tzuling & Tsai, Cary Chi-Liang, 2013. "On the mortality/longevity risk hedging with mortality immunization," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 580-596.
    22. repec:eee:insuma:v:78:y:2018:i:c:p:157-173 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Alonso, Pablo J. & Marín Díazaraque, Juan Miguel & Albarrán Lozano, Irene & Benchimol, Andrés Gustavo, 2015. "Hierarchical Lee-Carter model estimation through data cloning applied to demographically linked countries," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws1510, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:46:y:2010:i:1:p:242-253. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505554 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.