Several illustrations of the quantity theory of money: 1947-1987 and 1867-1975
AbstractThis paper explores empirical relationships that involve the five quantity theoretic variables: rates of change in money supply, velocity, real output, inflation and also short-term nominal interest rate. Unlike, earlier studies that employ, primarily, regression methods to identify statistical relationships, this study uses the two-side exponentially weighted moving average methodology. This method smooths the original data to various degrees depending on the values of a given weight parameter to exclude as much noise as possible and, thus identifies probable trends. Using intermediate-term and long-term data sets, some much analyzed quantity theoretic relationships are reconfirmed, some new ones are proposed and finally, some less known, are reemphasized.
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