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Modeling residual flood risk behind levees, Upper Mississippi River, USA

Author

Listed:
  • Pinter, Nicholas
  • Huthoff, Fredrik
  • Dierauer, Jennifer
  • Remo, Jonathan W.F.
  • Damptz, Amanda

Abstract

Flood protection from levees is a mixed blessing, excluding water from the floodplain but creating higher flood levels (“surcharges”) and promoting “residual risk” of flood damages. This study completed 2D hydrodynamic modeling and flood-damage analyses for the 459km2 Sny Island levee system on the Upper Mississippi River. These levees provide large economic benefits, at least $51.1 million per year in prevented damages, the large majority provided to the agricultural sector and a small subset of low-elevation properties. However these benefits simultaneously translate into a large residual risk of flood damage should levees fail or be overtopped; this risk is not recognized either locally in the study area nor in national policy. In addition, the studied levees caused surcharges averaging 1.2–1.5m and locally as high as 2.4m, consistent with other sites and studies. The combined hydraulic and economic modeling here documented that levee-related surcharge+the residual risk of levee overtopping or failure can lead to negative benefits, meaning added long-term flood risk. Up to 31% of residential structures in the study area, 8% of agricultural structures, and 22% of commercial structures received negative benefits, totaling $562,500 per year. Although counterintuitive, structures at the margin of a leveed floodplain can incur negative benefits due to greater flood levels resulting from levees purportedly built to protect them. National levee policies and plans for local projects are unbalanced, crediting levee benefits but rarely fully planning for adverse impacts or considering alternatives.

Suggested Citation

  • Pinter, Nicholas & Huthoff, Fredrik & Dierauer, Jennifer & Remo, Jonathan W.F. & Damptz, Amanda, 2016. "Modeling residual flood risk behind levees, Upper Mississippi River, USA," Environmental Science & Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 131-140.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enscpo:v:58:y:2016:i:c:p:131-140
    DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2016.01.003
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Haoluan, 2020. "Flood Your Neighbors: The Economic Impacts of Levee Building," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304382, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Simon Wagner & Sophie Thiam & Nadège I. P. Dossoumou & Michael Hagenlocher & Maxime Souvignet & Jakob Rhyner, 2022. "Recovering from Financial Implications of Flood Impacts—The Role of Risk Transfer in the West African Context," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-20, July.
    3. Keith E. Schilling & Jerry Mount & Kelly M. Suttles & Eileen L. McLellan & Phillip W. Gassman & Michael J. White & Jeffrey G. Arnold, 2023. "An Approach for Prioritizing Natural Infrastructure Practices to Mitigate Flood and Nitrate Risks in the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-24, January.
    4. Tugkan Tanir & Andre de Souza de Lima & Gustavo A. Coelho & Sukru Uzun & Felicio Cassalho & Celso M. Ferreira, 2021. "Assessing the spatiotemporal socioeconomic flood vulnerability of agricultural communities in the Potomac River Watershed," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(1), pages 225-251, August.
    5. Wang, Haoluan, 2021. "Flood Your Neighbors: Spillover Effects of Levee Building," 95th Annual Conference, March 29-30, 2021, Warwick, UK (Hybrid) 311091, Agricultural Economics Society - AES.

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