Modeling the Effectiveness of Alternative Flood Adaptation Strategies Subject to Future Compound Climate Risks

Climate change is elevating temperatures, shifting weather patterns, and increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events. Despite the urgency with which solutions are needed, relatively few studies comprehensively investigate the effectiveness of alternative flood risk management options under different climate conditions. Specifically, we are interested in a comparison of the effectiveness of resistance, nature-based, and managed retreat strategies. Using an integrated 1D-2D PCSWMM model, this paper presents a comprehensive investigation into the effectiveness of alternative adaptation strategies in reducing flood risks in Eastwick, a community of Philadelphia, PA, subject to fluvial, pluvial, and coastal flood hazards. While addressing the urgent public need to develop local solutions to this community’s flood problems, the research also presents transferable insights into the limitations and opportunities of different flood risk reduction strategies, manifested here by a levee, watershed-scale green stormwater infrastructure (GSI) program, and a land swap. The effectiveness of these options is compared, respectively, under compound climate change conditions, with the spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation and Delaware river tidal conditions based on Tropical Storm Isaias (2020). The hypothesis was that the GSI and managed retreat approaches would be superior to the levee, due to their intrinsic ability to address the compound climate hazards faced by this community. Indeed, the findings illustrate significant differences in the predicted flood extents, depths, and duration of flooding of the various options under both current and future climate scenarios. However, the ideal remedy to flooding in Eastwick is more likely to require an integrated approach, based on more work to evaluate cost-effectiveness, stakeholder preferences, and various logistical factors. The paper concludes with a call for integrating multiple strategies into multifunctional flood risk management.