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An improved risk-benefit collaborative grey target decision model and its application in the decision making of load adjustment schemes

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  • Li, Rongbo
  • Jiang, Zhiqiang
  • Ji, Changming
  • Li, Anqiang
  • Yu, Shan

Abstract

Power generation plan formulated based on the forecasted runoff is an important basis for the actual operation of hydropower station. However, due to the forecast error, the load adjustment is necessary in the actual operation, and how to find out the most satisfactory load adjustment scheme from the scheme set is an important topic. So, in order to comprehensively reflect the risk and benefit state of hydropower station operation, a risk-benefit collaborative evaluating indicator system of load adjustment scheme is established firstly in this paper, and aim at the strong subjectivity of present evaluation methods, an improved grey target decision model based on moment estimation method is proposed, and the combinatorial weight integration technology and the Mahalanobis distance are coupled in this model. Taking the cascade hydropower stations of Yalong River in China as an instance, six schemes are evaluated by the proposed model, and the results are compared and analyzed with another six evaluation models. Results show that the proposed model can effectively coordinate different weighting methods and overcome the shortcomings of traditional grey target decision model about the insufficient consideration on the importance and correlation of evaluating indicators, and it has a good value of popularization and application.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Rongbo & Jiang, Zhiqiang & Ji, Changming & Li, Anqiang & Yu, Shan, 2018. "An improved risk-benefit collaborative grey target decision model and its application in the decision making of load adjustment schemes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 387-400.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:156:y:2018:i:c:p:387-400
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2018.05.119
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    3. Zhiqiang Jiang & Zhengyang Tang & Yi Liu & Yuyun Chen & Zhongkai Feng & Yang Xu & Hairong Zhang, 2019. "Area Moment and Error Based Forecasting Difficulty and its Application in Inflow Forecasting Level Evaluation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(13), pages 4553-4568, October.
    4. Yunqi Zhao & Jing Xiang & Jiaming Xu & Jinying Li & Ning Zhang, 2019. "Study on the Comprehensive Benefit Evaluation of Transnational Power Networking Projects Based on Multi-Project Stakeholder Perspectives," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-21, January.
    5. Hungerford, Zoe & Bruce, Anna & MacGill, Iain, 2019. "The value of flexible load in power systems with high renewable energy penetration," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    6. Luo, Xiaoyuan & Wang, Xinyu & Zhang, Mingyue & Guan, Xinping, 2019. "Distributed detection and isolation of bias injection attack in smart energy grid via interval observer," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
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    9. Rosha, Pali & Mohapatra, Saroj Kumar & Mahla, Sunil Kumar & Dhir, Amit, 2019. "Hydrogen enrichment of biogas via dry and autothermal-dry reforming with pure nickel (Ni) nanoparticle," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 733-739.
    10. Sun, Hong & Yu, Mingfu & Li, Qiang & Zhuang, Kaiming & Li, Jie & Almheiri, Saif & Zhang, Xiaochen, 2019. "Characteristics of charge/discharge and alternating current impedance in all-vanadium redox flow batteries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 693-701.
    11. Smitha, T.V. & Nagaraja, K.V., 2019. "Application of automated cubic-order mesh generation for efficient energy transfer using parabolic arcs for microwave problems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 1104-1118.
    12. Daneshvar, Mohammadreza & Mohammadi-Ivatloo, Behnam & Zare, Kazem & Asadi, Somayeh, 2020. "Two-stage stochastic programming model for optimal scheduling of the wind-thermal-hydropower-pumped storage system considering the flexibility assessment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    13. Chang, Soowon & Saha, Nirvik & Castro-Lacouture, Daniel & Yang, Perry Pei-Ju, 2019. "Multivariate relationships between campus design parameters and energy performance using reinforcement learning and parametric modeling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 249(C), pages 253-264.
    14. Zhiqiang Jiang & Hui Qin & Changming Ji & Dechao Hu & Jianzhong Zhou, 2019. "Effect Analysis of Operation Stage Difference on Energy Storage Operation Chart of Cascade Reservoirs," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(4), pages 1349-1365, March.
    15. Yueqiu Wu & Liping Wang & Yi Wang & Yanke Zhang & Jiajie Wu & Qiumei Ma & Xiaoqing Liang & Bin He, 2021. "Risk Analysis for Short-Term Operation of the Power Generation in Cascade Reservoirs Considering Multivariate Reservoir Inflow Forecast Errors," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-16, March.

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