Extreme weather shocks and electricity security: Evidence from China

Extreme weather poses growing risks to electricity security, yet its multidimensional effects remain underexplored. Using panel data for 30 Chinese provinces from 2008 to 2020, this study constructs a composite electricity security index and combines it with meteorological data from the GSOD dataset to estimate the impact of extreme weather. Fixed-effects estimates show that extreme heat significantly reduces electricity security, with the strongest effects concentrated in availability and sustainability. Mechanism analysis indicates that extreme heat increases residential electricity demand and reshapes the generation mix: hydropower and wind generation per unit of installed capacity decline, while thermal and solar generation per unit of installed capacity rise. The adverse effects are stronger in provinces participating in the “West-to-East Power Transmission” program as electricity exporters. Further results show that provinces connected to ultra-high-voltage transmission lines are more vulnerable to extreme heat, particularly exporting provinces, suggesting that rigid interprovincial transmission obligations may amplify local supply stress. These findings highlight the importance of dispatch flexibility and region-specific adaptation in strengthening power system resilience under climate stress.