The cost of populism for the renewable energy transition: Evidence from global panel data

This study investigates the impact of executive-level populist discourse on the renewable energy transition using an unbalanced panel dataset of 69 developed and developing countries from 1997 to 2021. Employing a range of static and dynamic panel estimators, complemented by diagnostic-adjusted and instrumental-variable robustness checks, this study reveals a consistent and statistically significant negative association between populism and renewable energy transition. Furthermore, the interaction analysis shows that the negative influence of populism weakens as institutional quality improves. In contrast, countries with weaker institutions experience a more pronounced adverse effect. Moreover, additional quantile regression results reveal that the adverse impact of populism is evident across the entire distribution of renewable energy transition, but becomes stronger in countries with higher renewable penetration. These results suggest that populism represents a structural political barrier to clean energy transitions, whose impact depends on institutional strength and the stage of renewable development. Strong institutions can cushion populist disruptions by preserving policy continuity and credibility, whereas weak governance amplifies policy volatility and reform resistance. In countries that have already achieved higher levels of renewable energy penetration, the influence of populism intensifies as populist actors exploit public fatigue with climate policies, magnify distributional conflicts, and defend residual fossil fuel interests, thereby impeding further expansion. These findings underscore the need for resilient institutions and inclusive policy framing to sustain political support and maintain momentum toward long-term decarbonization.