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A modified Duckworth–Lewis method for adjusting targets in interrupted limited overs cricket


  • McHale, Ian G.
  • Asif, Muhammad


In this paper we present a modified Duckworth/Lewis method. The key modification is an improved functional form for the model describing the runs to be scored in an innings. In the course of our work we compare several alternative methods for resetting targets in limited overs cricket that have been proposed in the literature and conclude that the Duckworth/Lewis method is the most viable. Our analysis also suggests that it is reasonable to use a single method for both the 50-over and 20-over formats of the game.

Suggested Citation

  • McHale, Ian G. & Asif, Muhammad, 2013. "A modified Duckworth–Lewis method for adjusting targets in interrupted limited overs cricket," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 353-362.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:225:y:2013:i:2:p:353-362 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2012.09.036

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. repec:eee:reensy:v:91:y:2006:i:3:p:311-319 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Lam, Yeh & Zhang, Yuan Lin & Liu, Qun, 2006. "A geometric process model for M/M/1 queueing system with a repairable service station," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 168(1), pages 100-121, January.
    3. repec:eee:reensy:v:96:y:2011:i:11:p:1542-1551 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Montoro-Cazorla, Delia & Perez-Ocon, Rafael, 2006. "Replacement times and costs in a degrading system with several types of failure: The case of phase-type holding times," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 1193-1209, December.
    5. Zhang, Yuan Lin & Wang, Guan Jun, 2007. "A deteriorating cold standby repairable system with priority in use," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 183(1), pages 278-295, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Asif, Muhammad & McHale, Ian G., 2016. "In-play forecasting of win probability in One-Day International cricket: A dynamic logistic regression model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 34-43.
    2. Silva, Rajitha M. & Manage, Ananda B.W. & Swartz, Tim B., 2015. "A study of the powerplay in one-day cricket," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 244(3), pages 931-938.
    3. Steven E Stern, 2016. "The Duckworth-Lewis-Stern method: extending the Duckworth-Lewis methodology to deal with modern scoring rates," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 67(12), pages 1469-1480, December.

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    OR in sports; Cricket; Rain rules; Sports statistics;


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