CoralPOP: A morphology-based coral population model for transferable reef management projections

Many coral reef models now capture complex demographic, trait-based or ecosystem dynamics, supporting detailed projections under climate stress. However, their application is often constrained by extensive site-specific data needs, specialised modelling expertise and reliance on proprietary software, limiting accessibility and practical transferability. Here we develop CoralPOP, a morphology-based, size-structured coral population model that uses commonly collected benthic data and a small set of calibrated parameters to simulate trajectories under bleaching and cyclone scenarios. The model advances coral community forecasting by: (1) morphology-based parameterisation that balances ecological realism with data accessibility, (2) global default parameters enabling deployment without extensive local datasets, (3) parsimonious calibration focused on three mechanistically important parameters and (4) demonstrated transferability, validated across four reef types and two regions (Great Barrier Reef and the Caribbean). Applications include exploring disturbance scenarios and initial community states to assess reef resilience and guide restoration and protection priorities.