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Simulation and analysis of dengue transmission dynamics using advanced fuzzy arithmetic

Author

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  • Abdullah, Nurfatihah
  • Mohamad, Wan Munirah Wan
  • Ahmad, Tahir
  • Bakar, Sumarni Abu

Abstract

Dengue fever remains a major public health concern in Malaysia due to the widespread presence of Aedes mosquitoes. Therefore, modeling its transmission is essential. This study aims to enhance the traditional SIR-SI model by developing two new versions called SEIHRD-SEI and SAVEIHRD-SEIW models to accurately represent Dengue transmission using advanced fuzzy arithmetical modeling based on the transformation method. These enhanced models incorporate intervention strategies such as awareness reminders, vaccination, and vector control. The state-space models of SEIHRD-SEI and SAVEIHRD-SEIW are simulated in Simulink, and their systems of differential equations are analytically solved using the matrix exponential integrating factor method to obtain output equations that preserve essential dynamics. The simulations are then executed using FAMOUS software for advanced fuzzy arithmetical analysis. The result shows that awareness reminders are more influential than vaccination in the human population. Furthermore, hospitalized recovery has a greater influence on disease dynamics than natural recovery. In the mosquito population, insecticide usage is more influential than Wolbachia prevalence. Overall, the study successfully identifies the most influential parameters.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdullah, Nurfatihah & Mohamad, Wan Munirah Wan & Ahmad, Tahir & Bakar, Sumarni Abu, 2025. "Simulation and analysis of dengue transmission dynamics using advanced fuzzy arithmetic," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 510(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:510:y:2025:i:c:s0304380025003278
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111341
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chowdhury, Mohammad Mihrab & Gray, Matthew J. & Carter, Edward Davis & Woodhams, Douglas C. & McCartney, Julia A. & Surles, James G. & Nelms, K McKensie & Gan, Hao & Peace, Angela, 2025. "Fungal pathogen transmission dynamics in North American salamanders: Mathematical insights for disease management," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 501(C).
    2. Fauzi, Ilham Saiful & Nuraini, Nuning & Ayu, Regina Wahyudyah Sonata & Wardani, Imaniah Bazlina & Rosady, Siti Duratun Nasiqiati, 2025. "Seasonal pattern of dengue infection in Singapore: A mechanism-based modeling and prediction," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 501(C).
    3. Anusit Chamnan & Puntani Pongsumpun & I-Ming Tang & Napasool Wongvanich, 2022. "Effect of a Vaccination against the Dengue Fever Epidemic in an Age Structure Population: From the Perspective of the Local and Global Stability Analysis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-25, March.
    4. Ahmad Firdhaus Arham & Mohd Istajib Mokhtar & Nurhafiza Zainal & Mohamad Hasif Jaafar & Latifah Amin & Noor Sharizad Rusly & Mohd Fadhli Shah Khaidzir & Muhammad Firdaus Aziz & Nazri Muslim, 2025. "Asian households’ dengue-related knowledge, attitudes, and practices: a systematic review," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
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