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Modeling a coastal ecosystem to estimate climate change mitigation and a model demonstration in Tokyo Bay

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  • Sohma, Akio
  • Shibuki, Hisashi
  • Nakajima, Fumiyuki
  • Kubo, Atsushi
  • Kuwae, Tomohiro

Abstract

An ecosystem model called the “EMAGIN-B.C. ver 1.0 (Ecosystem Model for Aquatic Geologic Integrated Network for Blue Carbon)”, describing the Carbon-Nitrogen-Phosphorus-Oxygen-Calcium cycle was developed to estimate/predict carbon capture and storage in estuaries. EMAGIN-B.C. analyzes (1) carbon burial, wherein carbon is captured biologically in the pelagic and benthic ecosystems and stored in deeper sediments, (2) CO2 uptake at the ocean surface while considering the carbonate chemistry with total alkalinity and Dissolved Inorganic Carbon (DIC) production/consumption due to biochemical processes, (3) DIC capture associated with grazing at the trophic level among phytoplankton, zooplankton, and benthic fauna, (4) the effects of hypoxia on benthic fauna and bacteria by precise modeling of the biochemical oxygen production/consumption and the resultant hypoxia, and (5) the carbon transport by integration with the hydrodynamic model. EMAGIN-B.C. was applied to Tokyo Bay, a eutrophic, shallow coastal area, and reproduced the observations well. From the model outputs, it can be observed that Tokyo Bay shows functions of climate change mitigation. In the one-year carbon budget, Tokyo Bay captured 16.6% of the DIC from the atmosphere and river as organic matter by biological processes, and 3.9% of the total carbon flowing from the atmosphere and river was stored in the deeper sediment layer.

Suggested Citation

  • Sohma, Akio & Shibuki, Hisashi & Nakajima, Fumiyuki & Kubo, Atsushi & Kuwae, Tomohiro, 2018. "Modeling a coastal ecosystem to estimate climate change mitigation and a model demonstration in Tokyo Bay," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 384(C), pages 261-289.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:384:y:2018:i:c:p:261-289
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.04.019
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sohma, Akio & Sekiguchi, Yasuyuki & Kuwae, Tomohiro & Nakamura, Yoshiyuki, 2008. "A benthic–pelagic coupled ecosystem model to estimate the hypoxic estuary including tidal flat—Model description and validation of seasonal/daily dynamics," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 215(1), pages 10-39.
    2. Carlos M. Duarte & Iñigo J. Losada & Iris E. Hendriks & Inés Mazarrasa & Núria Marbà, 2013. "The role of coastal plant communities for climate change mitigation and adaptation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(11), pages 961-968, November.
    3. Daniel Murdiyarso & Joko Purbopuspito & J. Boone Kauffman & Matthew W. Warren & Sigit D. Sasmito & Daniel C. Donato & Solichin Manuri & Haruni Krisnawati & Sartji Taberima & Sofyan Kurnianto, 2015. "The potential of Indonesian mangrove forests for global climate change mitigation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(12), pages 1089-1092, December.
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    1. Sohma, Akio & Imada, Riku & Nishikawa, Tetsuya & Shibuki, Hisashi, 2022. "Modeling the life cycle of four types of phytoplankton and their bloom mechanisms in a benthic-pelagic coupled ecosystem," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 467(C).

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