IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v316y2015icp111-121.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling the spread of the invasive alga Codium fragile driven by long-distance dispersal of buoyant propagules

Author

Listed:
  • Gagnon, Karine
  • Peacock, Stephanie J.
  • Jin, Yu
  • Lewis, Mark A.

Abstract

The secondary spread of an invasive species after initial establishment is a major factor in determining its distribution and impacts. Determining and understanding the factors driving this secondary spread is therefore of great importance to manage and predict invasions. In this study we constructed an individual-based model for the spread of the invasive green alga Codium fragile ssp. fragile along a straight coastline, in order to understand the factors governing spreading speed. Codium can spread locally through non-buoyant propagules, while long-distance dispersal depends on the wind-driven dispersal of buoyant fragments. Since fragment buoyancy is determined by light conditions, we first modelled the buoyancy of fragments, yielding a dispersal time dependent on light conditions. We then used this dispersal time, along with empirical wind speeds and directions to calculate a dispersal kernel for fragments. Finally, we incorporated this dispersal kernel into a population growth model including survival rate and fragmentation rate, to calculate a population spreading speed. We found that under current environmental conditions along the east coast of Canada, (the northernmost front of this invasion) further spread towards the northeast is possible but limited (only 4kmyr−1). However, a sensitivity analysis showed that environmental shifts associated with climate change, such as more variable winds and increased disturbances that cause fragmentation, have the potential to increase spreading speed and particularly northward spread.

Suggested Citation

  • Gagnon, Karine & Peacock, Stephanie J. & Jin, Yu & Lewis, Mark A., 2015. "Modelling the spread of the invasive alga Codium fragile driven by long-distance dispersal of buoyant propagules," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 316(C), pages 111-121.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:316:y:2015:i:c:p:111-121
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.08.011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380015003749
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.08.011?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fennell, Mark & Murphy, James E. & Armstrong, Cristina & Gallagher, Tommy & Osborne, Bruce, 2012. "Plant Spread Simulator: A model for simulating large-scale directed dispersal processes across heterogeneous environments," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 1-10.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rebecca Pettit & Suzanne Lenhart, 2019. "Optimal Control of a PDE Model of an Invasive Species in a River," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 7(10), pages 1-17, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liao, Jinbao & Li, Zhenqing & Quets, Jan J. & Nijs, Ivan, 2013. "Effects of space partitioning in a plant species diversity model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 271-278.
    2. Rougier, Thibaud & Drouineau, Hilaire & Dumoulin, Nicolas & Faure, Thierry & Deffuant, Guillaume & Rochard, Eric & Lambert, Patrick, 2014. "The GR3D model, a tool to explore the Global Repositioning Dynamics of Diadromous fish Distribution," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 283(C), pages 31-44.
    3. Martin Ward, 2016. "Action against pest spread—the case for retrospective analysis with a focus on timing," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 8(1), pages 77-81, February.
    4. Martin Ward, 2016. "Action against pest spread—the case for retrospective analysis with a focus on timing," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 8(1), pages 77-81, February.
    5. Costa, Hugo & Ponte, Nuno B. & Azevedo, Eduardo B. & Gil, Artur, 2015. "Fuzzy set theory for predicting the potential distribution and cost-effective monitoring of invasive species," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 316(C), pages 122-132.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:316:y:2015:i:c:p:111-121. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.