Mathematical modelling for conservation and management of gorgonians corals: youngs and olds, could they coexist?

Gorgonian corals are long-lived, slow-growing marine species dominating Mediterranean rocky bottoms. Endowed with complex morphologies they give a structure to the whole community, moreover, being efficient suspension feeders, they play a key role in plankton-benthos energy flow and CO2 storage. Thus, the structure and the development of benthic, hard bottom communities are linked to gorgonian survival. The red coral Corallium rubrum (L. 1758) is a precious gorgonian endemic to the Mediterranean Sea. Harvested and traded world-wide since ancient times red coral is a clear example of overexploited marine resource. This species is structured into self-seeding, genetically differentiated populations, some of which, living in the shallower part of the species bathymetric distribution, was recently affected by anomalous mortality events linked to global climate change. The co-occurrence of overharvesting and mass mortality could dramatically affect such populations. Demographic population models, widely applied by conservation biologists to check population viability and to project population trends over time are fundamental to foster survival of such populations matching harvesting to population growth rates. Therefore we set out a dynamic model of a genetically differentiated red coral population living in shallow waters. This population is characterised by small/young, crowded colonies and high recruitment rate. On the basis of the size–age structure determined for this population, a static life-history table, in which survival and reproduction coefficients of the different size–age classes were reported, has been set out. Demographic data were included in a non-linear, discrete, age-structured dynamic model, based on a Leslie-Lewis transition matrix. Our field data indicate that the recruits-to-larvae ratio is actually density-dependent. Such dependence, positive for low and negative for high density values, was included into the model and the effect of colonies of different size–age classes on recruits-to-larvae ratio was considered to be proportional to the number of polyps they have. We applied such model to simulate the trends of the studied population under different increases of survival and life-span. As some populations of gorgonians actually show the dominance of sparse, big/old colonies and low recruitment rate, while others are characterised by crowded, small/young colonies and high recruitment rate, we simulated the shift from the former to the latter structure increasing survival and life-span. Our results suggest that a dramatic mortality increase of bigger–older colonies (due, in the case of red coral to overfishing) could have determined the population structure we found.