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Trade policy under endogenous credibility

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  • Engel, Charles
  • Kletzer, Kenneth M.

Abstract

Because trade liberalization which is anticipated to be temporary creates a divergence between the effective domestic rate of interest and the world rate of interest, tariff-reduction in the presence of international financial asset trade may reduce welfare for a small country. Calvo has argued that even though the government intends to liberalize trade permanently, if the private sector believes with some probability that a tariff will be imposed in the future, then free trade may not be optimal. This paper first formalizes this argument and discusses the optimal policy for a government which seeks to maximize representative household welfare. The government's lack of credibility is represented by a set of beliefs the private sector holds about the type of government it faces. Next, beliefs are endoqenized by allowing me private sector to update them using Bayes' rule. In one approach, the true government's objective is maximize welfare for the economy, so that it does not seek to imitate another type, in contrast with other recent models of policy credibility. With learning, the government eventually adopts free trade, even though restricted trade is optimal initially.
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Suggested Citation

  • Engel, Charles & Kletzer, Kenneth M., 1991. "Trade policy under endogenous credibility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 213-228, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:36:y:1991:i:2:p:213-228
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    Cited by:

    1. Basu, Arnab K. & Chau, Nancy H., 1999. "Adverse selection, asymmetric information, and foreign investment policies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 239-252, September.
    2. Ibarra, Luis Alberto, 1995. "Credibility of trade policy reform and investment: the Mexican experience," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 39-60, June.
    3. Andrea Bassanini, 2006. "Credibility, Irreversibility of Investment, and Liberalization Reforms in LDCs," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 35(2), pages 203-218, July.
    4. Buffie, Edward F., 1995. "Trade liberalization, credibility and self-fulfilling failures," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 51-73, February.
    5. Feestra, R.C. & Lewis, T.R. & Mcmillan, J., 1989. "Designing Policies To Open Trade," Papers 349, California Davis - Institute of Governmental Affairs.
    6. Dani Rodrik, 1993. "Trade and Industrial Policy Reform in Developing Countries: A Review of Recent Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 4417, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Sadoulet, Elisabeth, 1994. "Political Constraints on the Developmental State: Alternative Theoretical Explanations," CUDARE Working Papers 201466, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

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