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Is drug-related violence fueling emigration from Central America?

Author

Listed:
  • Bonilla-Mejía, Leonardo
  • Bracco, Jessica
  • Ham, Andrés
  • Peñaloza-Pacheco, Leonardo

Abstract

We examine how drug-related violence influences emigration choices in Central America, a region that has experienced a sharp increase in migration to the United States. Combining multiple data sources, we leverage an instrumental variables strategy that exploits local variation in proximity to drug-trafficking routes and coca production in Colombia. Our results show that rising violence increases intentions, plans, and preparations to emigrate, particularly to the United States. These migration responses are strongest among young and higher-skilled individuals. Mediation analysis suggests that these migration responses operate predominantly through declining economic activity and worsening labor-market conditions in Central America, rather than through a direct response to insecurity.

Suggested Citation

  • Bonilla-Mejía, Leonardo & Bracco, Jessica & Ham, Andrés & Peñaloza-Pacheco, Leonardo, 2027. "Is drug-related violence fueling emigration from Central America?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:184:y:2027:i:c:s0304387826001902
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2026.103907
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • N96 - Economic History - - Regional and Urban History - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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