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Seasonality, academic calendar and school dropouts in South Asia

Author

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  • Ito, Seiro
  • Shonchoy, Abu S.

Abstract

Rural families in developing countries often face a critical trade-off: keeping children in school or involving them in seasonal agricultural labor. Misaligned school calendars intensify this challenge, significantly increasing school dropout rates. Leveraging the timing of Ramadan school holidays as a natural experiment, we find that annual exams coinciding with the harvest season increase school dropout rates by 6.6 to 9.0 percentage points (from the base of 25% dropout) among children from agricultural households in Bangladesh. This effect is predominantly driven by boys who participate in peak seasonal agricultural activities. Our findings are robust to varying age cut-offs and definitions of agricultural households. Long-term analyses employing age-specific cohorts using national household surveys corroborate these results. Complementary evidence from India, exploiting state-level academic calendar variations, further supports the findings. This study underscores the importance of carefully designing school calendars in rural areas that align with local agricultural seasonality.

Suggested Citation

  • Ito, Seiro & Shonchoy, Abu S., 2026. "Seasonality, academic calendar and school dropouts in South Asia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:179:y:2026:i:c:s0304387825002007
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103649
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    Cited by:

    1. Yuma Noritomo, 2025. "Does the Timing of Productivity Shocks in Childhood Affect Educational Attainment?," Discussion Paper Series DP2025-19, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, revised Jan 2026.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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