IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/cysrev/v143y2022ics0190740922003255.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Development and validation of a predictive risk model for runaway among youth in child welfare

Author

Listed:
  • Chor, Ka Ho Brian
  • Luo, Zhidi
  • Dworsky, Amy
  • Raman, Rameela
  • Courtney, Mark E.
  • Epstein, Richard A.

Abstract

Existing predictive risk models in child welfare tend to focus on child protection and prevention of youth’s entry to the child welfare system. Less explored is the potential contribution of predictive risk models to improve the care and meet the placement needs of youth in the child welfare system. This study demonstrated how an empirical model predicted youth’s risk for running away from child welfare placement to inform preventive interventions for youth in care. We used administrative data on youth’s demographic, child welfare, and clinical characteristics to develop a Cox proportional-hazards model. The model predicted time-to-first runaway among 8,255 legal custody spells of 12- to 17-years-olds in the care of the public child welfare agency of one large Midwestern state over an eight-year period. We validated the model internally using 200 bootstrap resamples from the development sample, and externally using a more recent, but smaller sample of 1,836 legal custody spells for youth whose information was not used to develop the model. Internal validation indicated stable predictor estimates, significant predictors that corroborate with relevant empirical literature on runaway, and strong discriminative ability and prediction accuracy (bias-adjusted c-statistic = 0.78). Through external validation, we demonstrated one preventive application of the model by predicting the risk of running away within the first 90 days of a legal custody spell. The model maintained the expected relationships between model-based predicted risks of runaway and actual runaway, as evidenced by accuracy metrics of precision and recall. We conclude by describing how child welfare agencies can apply predictive risk models such as ours to identify youth’s placement needs and estimate system capacity to prevent runaway.

Suggested Citation

  • Chor, Ka Ho Brian & Luo, Zhidi & Dworsky, Amy & Raman, Rameela & Courtney, Mark E. & Epstein, Richard A., 2022. "Development and validation of a predictive risk model for runaway among youth in child welfare," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:cysrev:v:143:y:2022:i:c:s0190740922003255
    DOI: 10.1016/j.childyouth.2022.106689
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0190740922003255
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.childyouth.2022.106689?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lin, Ching-Hsuan, 2012. "Children who run away from foster care: Who are the children and what are the risk factors?," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 807-813.
    2. Courtney, Mark E. & Yin-Ling Irene Wong, 1996. "Comparing the timing of exits from substitute care," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(4-5), pages 307-334.
    3. Rana Karam & Marie Robert, 2013. "Understanding runaway behaviour in group homes: What are runaways trying to tell us?," Journal of Community Positive Practices, Catalactica NGO, issue 2, pages 69-79.
    4. Wulczyn, Fred, 2020. "Race/ethnicity and running away from foster care," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    5. Fasulo, Samuel J. & Cross, Theodore P. & Mosley, Peggy & Leavey, Joseph, 2002. "Adolescent Runaway Behavior in Specialized Foster Care," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 623-640, August.
    6. Courtney, Mark E. & Zinn, Andrew, 2009. "Predictors of running away from out-of-home care," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 1298-1306, December.
    7. James, Sigrid & Landsverk, John & Slymen, Donald J., 2004. "Placement movement in out-of-home care: patterns and predictors," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 185-206, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wulczyn, Fred, 2020. "Race/ethnicity and running away from foster care," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    2. Latzman, Natasha E. & Gibbs, Deborah A. & Feinberg, Rose & Kluckman, Marianne N. & Aboul-Hosn, Sue, 2019. "Human trafficking victimization among youth who run away from foster care," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 113-124.
    3. Bowden, Francesca & Lambie, Ian & Willis, Gwen, 2018. "Road runners: Why youth abscond from out-of-home care in New Zealand," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 535-544.
    4. Sarri, Rosemary C. & Stoffregen, Elizabeth & Ryan, Joseph P., 2016. "Running away from child welfare placements: Justice system entry risk," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 191-197.
    5. Attar-Schwartz, Shalhevet, 2013. "Runaway behavior among adolescents in residential care: The role of personal characteristics, victimization experiences while in care, social climate, and institutional factors," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 258-267.
    6. Lin, Ching-Hsuan, 2012. "Children who run away from foster care: Who are the children and what are the risk factors?," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 807-813.
    7. Foster, E. Michael & Hillemeier, Marianne M. & Bai, Yu, 2011. "Explaining the disparity in placement instability among African-American and white children in child welfare: A Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 118-125, January.
    8. Welch, Vicki & Jones, Christine & Stalker, Kirsten & Stewart, Alasdair, 2015. "Permanence for disabled children and young people through foster care and adoption: A selective review of international literature," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 137-146.
    9. Courtney, Mark E. & Zinn, Andrew, 2009. "Predictors of running away from out-of-home care," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 1298-1306, December.
    10. Bezeczky, Zoe & Wilkins, David, 2022. "Repeat missing child reports: Prevalence, timing, and risk factors," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    11. Huhr, Scott & Wulczyn, Fred, 2022. "Do intensive in-home services prevent placement?: A case study of Youth Villages’ Intercept® program," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    12. Hébert, Sophie T. & Esposito, Tonino & Hélie, Sonia, 2018. "How short-term placements affect placement trajectories: A propensity-weighted analysis of re-entry into care," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 117-124.
    13. Havlicek, Judy, 2011. "Lives in motion: A review of former foster youth in the context of their experiences in the child welfare system," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1090-1100, July.
    14. Crea, Thomas M. & Lopez, Anayeli & Hasson, Robert G. & Evans, Kerri & Palleschi, Caroline & Underwood, Dawnya, 2018. "Unaccompanied immigrant children in long term foster care: Identifying needs and best practices from a child welfare perspective," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 56-64.
    15. Keegan Eamon, Mary & Kopels, Sandra, 2004. "`For reasons of poverty': court challenges to child welfare practices and mandated programs," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(9), pages 821-836, September.
    16. Unrau, Yvonne A., 2007. "Research on placement moves: Seeking the perspective of foster children," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 122-137, January.
    17. Fred Wulczyn & Xiaomeng Zhou & Jamie McClanahan & Scott Huhr & Kristen Hislop & Forrest Moore & Emily Rhodes, 2023. "Race, Poverty, and Foster Care Placement in the United States: Longitudinal and Cross-Sectional Perspectives," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(16), pages 1-19, August.
    18. Cassarino-Perez, Luciana & Crous, Gemma & Goemans, Anouk & Montserrat, Carme & Sarriera, Jorge Castellà, 2018. "From care to education and employment: A meta-analysis," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 407-416.
    19. Spielfogel, Jill E. & Leathers, Sonya J. & Christian, Errick & McMeel, Lorri S., 2011. "Parent management training, relationships with agency staff, and child mental health: Urban foster parents' perspectives," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2366-2374.
    20. Connell, Christian M. & Bory, Christopher T. & Huang, Cindy Y. & Genovese, Maegan & Caron, Colleen & Tebes, Jacob Kraemer, 2019. "Caseworker assessment of child risk and functioning and their relation to service use in the child welfare system," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 81-86.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:cysrev:v:143:y:2022:i:c:s0190740922003255. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/childyouth .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.