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A periodic Chikungunya model with virus mutation and transovarial transmission

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  • Wang, Yan
  • Li, Yazhi
  • Liu, Lili
  • Liu, Xianning

Abstract

In this paper, a Chikungunya dynamical model with virus mutation and transovarial transmission is developed, which incorporates the effect of seasonal temperature changes on disease transmission through time-dependent parameters. Firstly, the threshold parameter R0m that determines the persistence and extinction of mosquito populations is given, and then the disease reproduction number R0 is defined. Secondly, it is proved that if R0m > 1 and R0 < 1, the disease disappears; if R0m > 1 and R0 > 1, then Chikungunya with mutants and non-mutants will persist simultaneously. Finally, a case study is carried out with the data in Kerala, India, where the virus mutation causes the outbreak of Chikungunya. Data on newly confirmed human cases in the state between 2007 and 2010 is fitted and the theoretical results obtained in the previous section are validated. In addition, the effects of seasonal temperature change, virus mutation and transovarial transmission on the prevalence of the disease are studied by numerical simulations from different aspects.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Yan & Li, Yazhi & Liu, Lili & Liu, Xianning, 2022. "A periodic Chikungunya model with virus mutation and transovarial transmission," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:158:y:2022:i:c:s0960077922002120
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wang, Yan & Liu, Xianning, 2017. "Stability and Hopf bifurcation of a within-host chikungunya virus infection model with two delays," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 31-48.
    2. Valdez, L.D. & Sibona, G.J. & Condat, C.A., 2018. "Impact of rainfall on Aedes aegypti populations," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 385(C), pages 96-105.
    3. Laith Yakob & Archie C A Clements, 2013. "A Mathematical Model of Chikungunya Dynamics and Control: The Major Epidemic on Réunion Island," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(3), pages 1-6, March.
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