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Mathematical modeling of the spread of COVID-19 among different age groups in Morocco: Optimal control approach for intervention strategies

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  • Kada, Driss
  • Kouidere, Abdelfatah
  • Balatif, Omar
  • Rachik, Mostafa
  • Labriji, El Houssine

Abstract

In this article, we study the transmission of COVID-19 in the human population, notably between potential people and infected people of all age groups. Our objective is to reduce the number of infected people, in addition to increasing the number of individuals who recovered from the virus and are protected. We propose a mathematical model with control strategies using two variables of controls that represent respectively, the treatment of patients infected with COVID-19 by subjecting them to quarantine within hospitals and special places and using masks to cover the sensitive body parts. Pontryagin’s Maximum principle is used to characterize the optimal controls and the optimality system is solved by an iterative method. Finally, numerical simulations are presented with controls and without controls. Our results indicate that the implementation of the strategy that combines all the control variables adopted by the World Health Organization (WHO), produces excellent results similar to those achieved on the ground in Morocco.

Suggested Citation

  • Kada, Driss & Kouidere, Abdelfatah & Balatif, Omar & Rachik, Mostafa & Labriji, El Houssine, 2020. "Mathematical modeling of the spread of COVID-19 among different age groups in Morocco: Optimal control approach for intervention strategies," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:141:y:2020:i:c:s0960077920308298
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110437
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Abdelfatah Kouidere & Omar Balatif & Hanane Ferjouchia & Abdesslam Boutayeb & Mostafa Rachik, 2019. "Optimal Control Strategy for a Discrete Time to the Dynamics of a Population of Diabetics with Highlighting the Impact of Living Environment," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-8, December.
    2. Omar Balatif & Abderrahim Labzai & Mostafa Rachik, 2018. "A Discrete Mathematical Modeling and Optimal Control of the Electoral Behavior with regard to a Political Party," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-14, November.
    3. Zhi-Qiang Xia & Juan Zhang & Ya-Kui Xue & Gui-Quan Sun & Zhen Jin, 2015. "Modeling the Transmission of Middle East Respirator Syndrome Corona Virus in the Republic of Korea," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(12), pages 1-13, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kouidere, Abdelfatah & Balatif, Omar & Rachik, Mostafa, 2021. "Analysis and optimal control of a mathematical modeling of the spread of African swine fever virus with a case study of South Korea and cost-effectiveness," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    2. Ahmed, Mostak & Masud, Md. Abdullah Bin & Sarker, Md. Manirul Alam, 2023. "Bifurcation analysis and optimal control of discrete SIR model for COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    3. Kouidere, Abdelfatah & Youssoufi, Lahcen EL & Ferjouchia, Hanane & Balatif, Omar & Rachik, Mostafa, 2021. "Optimal Control of Mathematical modeling of the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic with highlighting the negative impact of quarantine on diabetics people with Cost-effectiveness," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    4. Khajji, Bouchaib & Kouidere, Abdelfatah & Elhia, Mohamed & Balatif, Omar & Rachik, Mostafa, 2021. "Fractional optimal control problem for an age-structured model of COVID-19 transmission," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).

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