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HIV and shifting epicenters for COVID-19, an alert for some countries

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  • Doungmo Goufo, Emile F.
  • Khan, Yasir
  • Chaudhry, Qasim Ali

Abstract

Were southern hemisphere countries right to undertake national lockdown during their summer time? Were they right to blindly follow the self-isolation wave that hit European countries in full winter? As a southern hemisphere country like South Africa stands now as the most COVID-19 and HIV affected country in Africa, we use in this paper, recent COVID-19 data to provide a statistical and comparative analysis that may alert southern hemisphere countries entering the winter season. After that, we use a generalized simple mathematical model of HIV-COVID-19 together with graphs, curves and tables to compare the pandemic situation in countries that were once the epicenter of the disease, such as China, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom (UK) and United States of America (USA). We perform stability and bifurcation analysis and show that the model contains a forward and a backward bifurcation under certain conditions. We also study different scenarios of stability/unstability equilibria for the model. The fractional (generalized) COVID-19 model is solved numerically and a predicted prevalence for the COVID-19 is provided. Recall that Brazil and South Africa share number of similar social features like Favellas (Brazil) and Townships (South Africa) with issues like promiscuity, poverty, and where social distanciation is almost impossible to observe. We can now ask the following question: Knowing its HIV situation, is South Africa the next epicenter in weeks to come when winter conditions, proven to be favorable to the spread of the new coronavirus are comfily installed?

Suggested Citation

  • Doungmo Goufo, Emile F. & Khan, Yasir & Chaudhry, Qasim Ali, 2020. "HIV and shifting epicenters for COVID-19, an alert for some countries," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:139:y:2020:i:c:s0960077920304288
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110030
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Emile Franc Doungmo Goufo & Suares Clovis Oukouomi Noutchie & Stella Mugisha, 2014. "A Fractional SEIR Epidemic Model for Spatial and Temporal Spread of Measles in Metapopulations," Abstract and Applied Analysis, Hindawi, vol. 2014, pages 1-6, June.
    2. Chen, Yiming & Ke, Xiaohong & Wei, Yanqiao, 2015. "Numerical algorithm to solve system of nonlinear fractional differential equations based on wavelets method and the error analysis," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 475-488.
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    Cited by:

    1. Asamoah, Joshua Kiddy K. & Owusu, Mark A. & Jin, Zhen & Oduro, F. T. & Abidemi, Afeez & Gyasi, Esther Opoku, 2020. "Global stability and cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 considering the impact of the environment: using data from Ghana," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    2. Babaei, A. & Ahmadi, M. & Jafari, H. & Liya, A., 2021. "A mathematical model to examine the effect of quarantine on the spread of coronavirus," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    3. Sharov, Konstantin S., 2020. "Creating and applying SIR modified compartmental model for calculation of COVID-19 lockdown efficiency," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).

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