IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/chsofr/v138y2020ics0960077920303702.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Coronavirus pandemic: A predictive analysis of the peak outbreak epidemic in South Africa, Turkey, and Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Djilali, Salih
  • Ghanbari, Behzad

Abstract

In this research, we are interested in predicting the epidemic peak outbreak of the Coronavirus in South Africa, Turkey, and Brazil. Until now, there is no known safe treatment, hence the immunity system of the individual has a crucial role in recovering from this contagious disease. In general, the aged individuals probably have the highest rate of mortality due to COVID-19. It is well known that this immunity system can be affected by the age of the individual, so it is wise to consider an age-structured SEIR system to model Coronavirus transmission. For the COVID-19 epidemic, the individuals in the incubation stage are capable of infecting the susceptible individuals. All the mentioned points are regarded in building the responsible predictive mathematical model. The investigated model allows us to predict the spread of COID-19 in South Africa, Turkey, and Brazil. The epidemic peak outbreak in these countries is considered, and the estimated time of the end of infection is regarded by the help of some numerical simulations. Further, the influence of the isolation of the infected persons on the spread of COVID-19 disease is investigated.

Suggested Citation

  • Djilali, Salih & Ghanbari, Behzad, 2020. "Coronavirus pandemic: A predictive analysis of the peak outbreak epidemic in South Africa, Turkey, and Brazil," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:138:y:2020:i:c:s0960077920303702
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109971
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077920303702
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109971?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Djilali, Salih, 2019. "Impact of prey herd shape on the predator-prey interaction," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 139-148.
    2. Riaz, M.B. & Iftikhar, N., 2020. "A comparative study of heat transfer analysis of MHD Maxwell fluid in view of local and nonlocal differential operators," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ghanbari, Behzad, 2020. "On forecasting the spread of the COVID-19 in Iran: The second wave," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    2. Napasool Wongvanich & I-Ming Tang & Marc-Antoine Dubois & Puntani Pongsumpun, 2021. "Mathematical Modeling and Optimal Control of the Hand Foot Mouth Disease Affected by Regional Residency in Thailand," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(22), pages 1-30, November.
    3. Panwar, Harsh & Gupta, P.K. & Siddiqui, Mohammad Khubeb & Morales-Menendez, Ruben & Bhardwaj, Prakhar & Singh, Vaishnavi, 2020. "A deep learning and grad-CAM based color visualization approach for fast detection of COVID-19 cases using chest X-ray and CT-Scan images," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    4. Khan, Hasib & Alam, Khurshaid & Gulzar, Haseena & Etemad, Sina & Rezapour, Shahram, 2022. "A case study of fractal-fractional tuberculosis model in China: Existence and stability theories along with numerical simulations," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 455-473.
    5. Şuayip Yüzbaşı & Gamze Yıldırım, 2023. "A Pell–Lucas Collocation Approach for an SIR Model on the Spread of the Novel Coronavirus (SARS CoV-2) Pandemic: The Case of Turkey," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-22, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Djilali, Salih & Ghanbari, Behzad & Bentout, Soufiane & Mezouaghi, Abdelheq, 2020. "Turing-Hopf bifurcation in a diffusive mussel-algae model with time-fractional-order derivative," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    2. Bentout, Soufiane & Djilali, Salih & Kumar, Sunil, 2021. "Mathematical analysis of the influence of prey escaping from prey herd on three species fractional predator-prey interaction model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 572(C).
    3. Siddique, Imran & Akgül, Ali, 2020. "Analysis of MHD generalized first problem of Stokes’ in view of local and non-local fractal fractional differential operators," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    4. Wang, Fatao & Yang, Ruizhi, 2023. "Spatial pattern formation driven by the cross-diffusion in a predator–prey model with Holling type functional response," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    5. Gupta, Ashvini & Dubey, Balram, 2022. "Bifurcation and chaos in a delayed eco-epidemic model induced by prey configuration," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 165(P1).
    6. Ghanbari, Behzad & Djilali, Salih, 2020. "Mathematical analysis of a fractional-order predator-prey model with prey social behavior and infection developed in predator population," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    7. Souna, Fethi & Lakmeche, Abdelkader & Djilali, Salih, 2020. "Spatiotemporal patterns in a diffusive predator-prey model with protection zone and predator harvesting," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    8. Cecilia Berardo & Iulia Martina Bulai & Ezio Venturino, 2021. "Interactions Obtained from Basic Mechanistic Principles: Prey Herds and Predators," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(20), pages 1-18, October.
    9. Ghanbari, Behzad & Cattani, Carlo, 2020. "On fractional predator and prey models with mutualistic predation including non-local and nonsingular kernels," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    10. Ezio Venturino, 2022. "Disease Spread among Hunted and Retaliating Herding Prey," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(23), pages 1-21, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:138:y:2020:i:c:s0960077920303702. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thayer, Thomas R. (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/chaos-solitons-and-fractals .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.