IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/chsofr/v136y2020ics0960077920302277.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A new approach to extreme event prediction and mitigation via Markov-model-based chaos control

Author

Listed:
  • Kaveh, Hojjat
  • Salarieh, Hassan

Abstract

Despite that the border between chaotic and stochastic systems is exactly defined, scientists, use high dimensional chaotic dynamics to model numerous stochastic models and sometimes use stochastic models to study chaotic systems. In this paper, we have investigated chaotic systems with a stochastic approach and proposed an estimator for the chaotic system which is used to present different algorithms for chaos control, extreme event prediction and extreme event mitigation. The stochastic estimator is constructed by meshing the phase space and applying the cell mapping method (with some considerations) which provides us with a model-free approximation of the systems. The algorithms are ideal for real-world applications where there are some noises and the model of the system is unknown. Besides, the proposed methods are adopted for when the control signal is limited to a few specific values. We have tested these algorithms on Logistic, Henon and a physiological control system.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaveh, Hojjat & Salarieh, Hassan, 2020. "A new approach to extreme event prediction and mitigation via Markov-model-based chaos control," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:136:y:2020:i:c:s0960077920302277
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109827
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077920302277
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109827?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wang, Biao & Mao, Zhizhong & Huang, Keke, 2019. "Detecting outliers for complex nonlinear systems with dynamic ensemble learning," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 98-107.
    2. Mattheakis, M. & Pitsios, I.J. & Tsironis, G.P. & Tzortzakis, S., 2016. "Extreme events in complex linear and nonlinear photonic media," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 73-80.
    3. Jokar, Meysam & Salarieh, Hassan & Alasty, Aria, 2019. "On the existence of proper stochastic Markov models for statistical reconstruction and prediction of chaotic time series," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 373-382.
    4. Li, Li, 2015. "Bifurcation and chaos in a discrete physiological control system," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 252(C), pages 397-404.
    5. Sinha, Amit & Horvath, Philip A. & Beason, Tyler & Roos, Kelly R., 2019. "Simulation of a financial market: The possibility of catastrophic disequilibrium," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 13-16.
    6. Kaveh, H. & Salarieh, H. & Hajiloo, R., 2018. "On the control of unknown continuous time chaotic systems by applying Takens embedding theory," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 53-57.
    7. Santos, Moises S. & Szezech, José D. & Batista, Antonio M. & Iarosz, Kelly C. & Caldas, Iberê L. & Viana, Ricardo L., 2019. "Dragon-kings death in nonlinear wave interactions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 534(C).
    8. Shirkavand, Mehrdad & Pourgholi, Mahdi, 2018. "Robust fixed-time synchronization of fractional order chaotic using free chattering nonsingular adaptive fractional sliding mode controller design," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 135-147.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lopes, António M. & Machado, J.A. Tenreiro, 2022. "Multidimensional scaling and visualization of patterns in global large-scale accidents," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ahmet Kara, 2023. "Stabilizing instability‐suboptimality‐and‐chaos‐prone fluctuations at crisis junctures: Stochastic possibilities for crisis management," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1772-1786, April.
    2. Behnia, S. & Ziaei, J. & Khodavirdizadeh, M. & Hosseinnezhad, P. & Rahimi, F., 2018. "Quantum chaos analysis for characterizing a photonic resonator lattice," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 154-159.
    3. Lahmiri, Salim, 2018. "Minute-ahead stock price forecasting based on singular spectrum analysis and support vector regression," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 320(C), pages 444-451.
    4. Mirza, Fuat Kaan & Baykaş, Tunçer & Hekimoğlu, Mustafa & Pekcan, Önder & Tunçay, Gönül Paçacı, 2024. "Decoding compositional complexity: Identifying composers using a model fusion-based approach with nonlinear signal processing and chaotic dynamics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    5. Huynh, Tuan-Tu & Lin, Chih-Min & Pham, Thanh-Thao T. & Cho, Hsing-Yueh & Le, Tien-Loc, 2019. "A modified function-link fuzzy cerebellar model articulation controller using a PI-type learning algorithm for nonlinear system synchronization and control," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 65-82.
    6. Jokar, Meysam & Salarieh, Hassan & Alasty, Aria, 2019. "On the existence of proper stochastic Markov models for statistical reconstruction and prediction of chaotic time series," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 373-382.
    7. Zhang, Mengjiao & Zang, Hongyan & Bai, Luyuan, 2022. "A new predefined-time sliding mode control scheme for synchronizing chaotic systems," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    8. Hui, Jiuwu, 2024. "Fixed-time fractional-order sliding mode controller with disturbance observer for U-tube steam generator," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    9. Wen, Haijun & Hou, Shiwang & Liu, Zhaohua & Liu, Yongjiang, 2017. "An optimization algorithm for integrated remanufacturing production planning and scheduling system," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 69-76.
    10. Wu, Zeyan & Li, Jianjuan & Liu, Shuying & Zhou, Liuting & Luo, Yang, 2019. "A spatial predator–prey system with non-renewable resources," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 347(C), pages 381-391.
    11. Yao, Qijia, 2021. "Synchronization of second-order chaotic systems with uncertainties and disturbances using fixed-time adaptive sliding mode control," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    12. Alsaade, Fawaz W. & Yao, Qijia & Bekiros, Stelios & Al-zahrani, Mohammed S. & Alzahrani, Ali S. & Jahanshahi, Hadi, 2022. "Chaotic attitude synchronization and anti-synchronization of master-slave satellites using a robust fixed-time adaptive controller," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 165(P2).
    13. Deng, Ziwei & Li, Yuxuan & Zhu, Hongqiu & Huang, Keke & Tang, Zhaohui & Wang, Zhen, 2020. "Sparse stacked autoencoder network for complex system monitoring with industrial applications," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    14. Pishro, Aboozar & Shahrokhi, Mohammad & Sadeghi, Hamed, 2022. "Fault-tolerant adaptive fractional controller design for incommensurate fractional-order nonlinear dynamic systems subject to input and output restrictions," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    15. Qiao, Jian-Qin & Li, Li, 2017. "Analysis of competitive infectious diseases with multiple strains," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 215-221.
    16. Shufen Niu & Ling Niu & Xiyan Yang & Caifen Wang & Xiangdong Jia, 2017. "Heterogeneous hybrid signcryption for multi-message and multi-receiver," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(9), pages 1-13, September.
    17. Petrosyan, Leon & Sedakov, Artem & Sun, Hao & Xu, Genjiu, 2017. "Convergence of strong time-consistent payment schemes in dynamic games," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 315(C), pages 96-112.
    18. Jiang, Xiaowei & Chen, Xiangyong & Chi, Ming & Chen, Jie, 2020. "On Hopf bifurcation and control for a delay systems," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 370(C).
    19. Kamal Elyaalaoui & Moussa Labbadi & Sahbi Boubaker & Souad Kamel & Faisal S. Alsubaei, 2023. "On Novel Fractional-Order Trajectory Tracking Control of Quadrotors: A Predefined-Time Guarantee Performance Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-18, August.
    20. Xie, Duosi & Zhang, Shouxu & Xie, Jianquan, 2018. "Distributed dynamic state estimation with flocking mobile agents," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 509(C), pages 1195-1206.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:136:y:2020:i:c:s0960077920302277. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thayer, Thomas R. (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/chaos-solitons-and-fractals .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.