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Epidemiological susceptibility risk and tourist flows around the world

Author

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  • Mertzanis, Charilaos
  • Papastathopoulos, Avraam

Abstract

Global tourist flows have increased in recent decades, but so have the outbreak and spread of epidemics, with enormous social and economic costs for the tourism sector. These developments affect the tourists' decisions to travel through their perception of travel risk and safety. Tourists need to assess whether destinations can identify and manage epidemiological risks to improve travel safety. This paper responds to this challenge by constructing an index of epidemiological susceptibility risk using objective information on the quality of health, environmental safety and communications infrastructures, demographics, economic activity, and institutional governance. The index appears to be a significant predictor of inbound tourist flows and occasionally of outbound flows. The effect on inbound flows is stronger in larger countries and weaker for outbound flows. It remains robust after applying sensitivity and endogeneity tests and economic and non-economic controls. The index could potentially provide a useful policy tool for predicting and managing the implications of epidemics on the tourism industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Mertzanis, Charilaos & Papastathopoulos, Avraam, 2021. "Epidemiological susceptibility risk and tourist flows around the world," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:anture:v:86:y:2021:i:c:s0160738320302395
    DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2020.103095
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Theodore Metaxas & Laura Juárez & Meletios Andrinos, 2022. "Measuring the Impact of Greece as a Safe Branding Tourist Destination: Evidence from Spain and Greece," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-17, April.
    2. Yu, Ling & Zhao, Pengjun & Tang, Junqing & Pang, Liang, 2023. "Changes in tourist mobility after COVID-19 outbreaks," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    3. Boto-García, David, 2023. "Investigating the two-way relationship between mobility flows and COVID-19 cases," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    4. Alessandro Bitetto & Paola Cerchiello & Charilaos Mertzanis, 2021. "A data-driven approach to measuring epidemiological susceptibility risk around the world," DEM Working Papers Series 200, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    5. Mihail Ovidiu Tănase & Răzvan Dina & Florin-Lucian Isac & Sergiu Rusu & Puiu Nistoreanu & Cosmin Nicolae Mirea, 2022. "Romanian Wine Tourism—A Paved Road or a Footpath in Rural Tourism?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-24, March.
    6. Davide Provenzano & Serena Volo, 2022. "Tourism recovery amid COVID-19: The case of Lombardy, Italy," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(1), pages 110-130, February.
    7. Alina-Cerasela Aluculesei & Puiu Nistoreanu & Daniel Avram & Bogdan Gabriel Nistoreanu, 2021. "Past and Future Trends in Medical Spas: A Co-Word Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-20, August.
    8. Storonyanska, Iryna & Dub, Andrii & Grafska, Oryslava & Hrynchyshyn, Iryna & Bilanyuk, Olha & Pierscieniak, Agata, 2021. "The tourist infrastructure of local communities in Ukraine: current state and impact on local economic development," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 7(2), June.
    9. Anastasiou, Dimitris & Drakos, Konstantinos & Kapopoulos, Panayotis, 2022. "Predicting international tourist arrivals in Greece with a novel sector-specific business leading indicator," MPRA Paper 113860, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Epidemiological risk; Health; Tourist flows; Prediction; Institutions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Z32 - Other Special Topics - - Tourism Economics - - - Tourism and Development
    • N30 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • O50 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - General
    • O20 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - General

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