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Bio-economic evaluation of cropping systems for saline coastal Bangladesh: III Benefits of adaptation in current and future environments

Author

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  • Kabir, Md. Jahangir
  • Cramb, Rob
  • Gaydon, Donald S.
  • Roth, Christian H.

Abstract

Climate change and salinisation present substantial challenges to the sustainability of cropping systems in south-west coastal Bangladesh. This is the third paper in a series reporting a study to assess the impacts of climate change and salinity on the productivity and economic viability of ten current and potential rice-based cropping systems in two coastal villages in Khulna District. In this paper, possible adaptations are assessed, including novel dry-season crops, changed fertilizer use, and changed sowing dates, across five climate and three salinity scenarios. Farmers' estimated, APSIM-simulated, and extrapolated yield distributions were incorporated in budgets for the ten cropping systems, using current and projected salinity levels. Current and projected future prices and costs were used to estimate different measures of profitability. Estimated variability in yields and prices was used to generate probability distributions for these profitability measures, permitting comparison of cropping systems based on profitability and risk. Adaptation through changed fertilizer use (higher or lower, depending on the crop) was projected to give higher returns for some cropping systems. However, larger improvements were obtainable with changes in sowing dates to avoid the worst stresses imposed by climate change and salinity. The loss of production of all crops except watermelon and pumpkin due to salinity was more than offset with changed sowing dates for 2030 and 2060 conditions, irrespective of season. With such adaptations, and allowing for risk, the rice/shrimp system maintained the top ranking in terms of net income per hectare in 2030 and 2060 and the rice/sunflower system maintained the second ranking. The rice/pumpkin/rice system ranked third for 2030 and fourth in 2060 while the rice/maize system moved up to third in 2060.

Suggested Citation

  • Kabir, Md. Jahangir & Cramb, Rob & Gaydon, Donald S. & Roth, Christian H., 2018. "Bio-economic evaluation of cropping systems for saline coastal Bangladesh: III Benefits of adaptation in current and future environments," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 28-41.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:161:y:2018:i:c:p:28-41
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2017.12.006
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kabir, Jahangir & Cramb, Rob & Alauddin, Mohammad & Gaydon, Donald S. & Roth, Christian H., 2020. "Farmers’ perceptions and management of risk in rice/shrimp farming systems in South-West Coastal Bangladesh," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    2. Subhasis Mandal & B. Maji & S. K. Sarangi & K. K. Mahanta & U. K. Mandal & D. Burman & S. Digar & M. Mainuddin & P. C. Sharma, 2020. "Economics of cropping system intensification for small-holder farmers in coastal salt-affected areas in West Bengal: options, challenges and determinants," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 47(1), pages 19-33, March.
    3. Md Roushon Jamal & Paul Kristiansen & Md Jahangir Kabir & Lisa Lobry de Bruyn, 2023. "Challenges and Adaptations for Resilient Rice Production under Changing Environments in Bangladesh," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-21, June.
    4. Carcedo, Ana J.P. & Bastos, Leonardo M. & Yadav, Sudhir & Mondal, Manoranjan K. & Jagadish, S.V. Krishna & Kamal, Farhana A. & Sutradhar, Asish & Prasad, P.V. Vara & Ciampitti, Ignacio, 2022. "Assessing impact of salinity and climate scenarios on dry season field crops in the coastal region of Bangladesh," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    5. Assefa, Yared & Yadav, Sudhir & Mondal, Manoranjan K. & Bhattacharya, Jayanta & Parvin, Rokhsana & Sarker, Shilpi R. & Rahman, Mahabubur & Sutradhar, Asish & Prasad, P.V. Vara & Bhandari, Humnath & Sh, 2021. "Crop diversification in rice-based systems in the polders of Bangladesh: Yield stability, profitability, and associated risk," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    6. Kabir, Md. Jahangir & Cramb, Rob & Alauddin, Mohammad & Gaydon, Donald S., 2019. "Farmers’ perceptions and management of risk in rice-based farming systems of south-west coastal Bangladesh," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 177-188.
    7. Kabir, Md. Jahangir & Gaydon, Donald S. & Cramb, Rob & Roth, Christian H., 2018. "Bio-economic evaluation of cropping systems for saline coastal Bangladesh: I. Biophysical simulation in historical and future environments," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 107-122.
    8. Thayla Sara Soares Stivari Reijers & Gustavo Lineu Sartorello & Oscar Alejandro Ojeda-Rojas & Camila Raineri & Marcos Nogueira & Rodolfo Silva & Thiago Barros Brito & Alda Lucia Gomes Monteiro & Augus, 2019. "Economic Assessment of the Productive Parameters in Meat Sheep Production Using Discrete Event and Agent-Based Simulation," Journal of Agricultural Studies, Macrothink Institute, vol. 7(3), pages 49-69, September.
    9. Alamgir Kabir & Md Nurul Amin & Kushal Roy & Md Sarwar Hossain, 2021. "Determinants of climate change adaptation strategies in the coastal zone of Bangladesh: implications for adaptation to climate change in developing countries," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 26(7), pages 1-25, October.
    10. Krishnendu Ray & Suman Mondal & Md. Jahangir Kabir & Sukamal Sarkar & Kalyan Roy & Koushik Brahmachari & Argha Ghosh & Manoj K. Nanda & Sanchayeeta Misra & Supriya Ghorui & Rupak Goswami & Mohammed Ma, 2023. "Assessment of Economic Sustainability of Cropping Systems in the Salt–Affected Coastal Zone of West Bengal, India," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-25, May.

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