IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agisys/v161y2018icp28-41.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bio-economic evaluation of cropping systems for saline coastal Bangladesh: III Benefits of adaptation in current and future environments

Author

Listed:
  • Kabir, Md. Jahangir
  • Cramb, Rob
  • Gaydon, Donald S.
  • Roth, Christian H.

Abstract

Climate change and salinisation present substantial challenges to the sustainability of cropping systems in south-west coastal Bangladesh. This is the third paper in a series reporting a study to assess the impacts of climate change and salinity on the productivity and economic viability of ten current and potential rice-based cropping systems in two coastal villages in Khulna District. In this paper, possible adaptations are assessed, including novel dry-season crops, changed fertilizer use, and changed sowing dates, across five climate and three salinity scenarios. Farmers' estimated, APSIM-simulated, and extrapolated yield distributions were incorporated in budgets for the ten cropping systems, using current and projected salinity levels. Current and projected future prices and costs were used to estimate different measures of profitability. Estimated variability in yields and prices was used to generate probability distributions for these profitability measures, permitting comparison of cropping systems based on profitability and risk. Adaptation through changed fertilizer use (higher or lower, depending on the crop) was projected to give higher returns for some cropping systems. However, larger improvements were obtainable with changes in sowing dates to avoid the worst stresses imposed by climate change and salinity. The loss of production of all crops except watermelon and pumpkin due to salinity was more than offset with changed sowing dates for 2030 and 2060 conditions, irrespective of season. With such adaptations, and allowing for risk, the rice/shrimp system maintained the top ranking in terms of net income per hectare in 2030 and 2060 and the rice/sunflower system maintained the second ranking. The rice/pumpkin/rice system ranked third for 2030 and fourth in 2060 while the rice/maize system moved up to third in 2060.

Suggested Citation

  • Kabir, Md. Jahangir & Cramb, Rob & Gaydon, Donald S. & Roth, Christian H., 2018. "Bio-economic evaluation of cropping systems for saline coastal Bangladesh: III Benefits of adaptation in current and future environments," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 28-41.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:161:y:2018:i:c:p:28-41
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2017.12.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X17301890
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agsy.2017.12.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Thayla Sara Soares Stivari Reijers & Gustavo Lineu Sartorello & Oscar Alejandro Ojeda-Rojas & Camila Raineri & Marcos Nogueira & Rodolfo Silva & Thiago Barros Brito & Alda Lucia Gomes Monteiro & Augus, 2019. "Economic Assessment of the Productive Parameters in Meat Sheep Production Using Discrete Event and Agent-Based Simulation," Journal of Agricultural Studies, Macrothink Institute, vol. 7(3), pages 49-69, September.
    2. Alamgir Kabir & Md Nurul Amin & Kushal Roy & Md Sarwar Hossain, 2021. "Determinants of climate change adaptation strategies in the coastal zone of Bangladesh: implications for adaptation to climate change in developing countries," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 26(7), pages 1-25, October.
    3. Subhasis Mandal & B. Maji & S. K. Sarangi & K. K. Mahanta & U. K. Mandal & D. Burman & S. Digar & M. Mainuddin & P. C. Sharma, 2020. "Economics of cropping system intensification for small-holder farmers in coastal salt-affected areas in West Bengal: options, challenges and determinants," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 47(1), pages 19-33, March.
    4. Md Roushon Jamal & Paul Kristiansen & Md Jahangir Kabir & Lisa Lobry de Bruyn, 2023. "Challenges and Adaptations for Resilient Rice Production under Changing Environments in Bangladesh," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-21, June.
    5. Carcedo, Ana J.P. & Bastos, Leonardo M. & Yadav, Sudhir & Mondal, Manoranjan K. & Jagadish, S.V. Krishna & Kamal, Farhana A. & Sutradhar, Asish & Prasad, P.V. Vara & Ciampitti, Ignacio, 2022. "Assessing impact of salinity and climate scenarios on dry season field crops in the coastal region of Bangladesh," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    6. Assefa, Yared & Yadav, Sudhir & Mondal, Manoranjan K. & Bhattacharya, Jayanta & Parvin, Rokhsana & Sarker, Shilpi R. & Rahman, Mahabubur & Sutradhar, Asish & Prasad, P.V. Vara & Bhandari, Humnath & Sh, 2021. "Crop diversification in rice-based systems in the polders of Bangladesh: Yield stability, profitability, and associated risk," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    7. Kabir, Md. Jahangir & Gaydon, Donald S. & Cramb, Rob & Roth, Christian H., 2018. "Bio-economic evaluation of cropping systems for saline coastal Bangladesh: I. Biophysical simulation in historical and future environments," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 107-122.
    8. Kabir, Jahangir & Cramb, Rob & Alauddin, Mohammad & Gaydon, Donald S. & Roth, Christian H., 2020. "Farmers’ perceptions and management of risk in rice/shrimp farming systems in South-West Coastal Bangladesh," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    9. Krishnendu Ray & Suman Mondal & Md. Jahangir Kabir & Sukamal Sarkar & Kalyan Roy & Koushik Brahmachari & Argha Ghosh & Manoj K. Nanda & Sanchayeeta Misra & Supriya Ghorui & Rupak Goswami & Mohammed Ma, 2023. "Assessment of Economic Sustainability of Cropping Systems in the Salt–Affected Coastal Zone of West Bengal, India," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-25, May.
    10. Kabir, Md. Jahangir & Cramb, Rob & Alauddin, Mohammad & Gaydon, Donald S., 2019. "Farmers’ perceptions and management of risk in rice-based farming systems of south-west coastal Bangladesh," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 177-188.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:161:y:2018:i:c:p:28-41. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agsy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.