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Recent dynamics in energy inflation: the role of base effects and taxes

Author

Listed:
  • Rubene, Ieva
  • Koester, Gerrit

Abstract

This box reviews the factors behind the 11-percentage point swing in energy inflation between December 2020 and March 2021, with a particular focus on oil prices, base effects and the impact of indirect taxation. Base effects linked to the collapse of oil prices at the beginning of 2020 pushed up energy inflation by around 5 percentage points between December 2020 and March 2021, and this contribution can be expected to increase substantially further in April. The impact of the marked increase in oil prices since November 2020 has come on top of this. However, the strengthening of energy inflation in early 2021 has reflected not only oil price developments but also changes in taxes and other surcharges – including environmentally motivated measures such as the introduction of carbon emission certificates. Overall, energy inflation plays a prominent role in the temporary rise in overall HICP inflation projected for 2021 and its reduction in early 2022. JEL Classification: E31, Q4, E37, H2, H23

Suggested Citation

  • Rubene, Ieva & Koester, Gerrit, 2021. "Recent dynamics in energy inflation: the role of base effects and taxes," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 3.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2021:0003:4
    Note: 3015628
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/economic-bulletin/focus/2021/html/ecb.ebbox202103_04~0a0c8f0814.en.html
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Aleksandra Matuszewska-Janica & Dorota Żebrowska-Suchodolska & Urszula Ala-Karvia & Marta Hozer-Koćmiel, 2021. "Changes in Electricity Production from Renewable Energy Sources in the European Union Countries in 2005–2019," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-27, October.
    2. Christiane Nickel & Gerrit Koester & Eliza Lis, 2022. "Inflation Developments in the Euro Area Since the Onset of the Pandemic," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 57(2), pages 69-75, March.
    3. Ondřej Bednář & Andrea Čečrdlová & Božena Kadeřábková & Pavel Řežábek, 2022. "Energy Prices Impact on Inflationary Spiral," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-25, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    base effects; energy; indirect taxes; Inflation; oil prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies

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