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Tracking global economic uncertainty: implications for global investment and trade

Author

Listed:
  • Bobasu, Alina
  • Geis, André
  • Quaglietti, Lucia
  • Ricci, Martino

Abstract

Over the past year the global economy has transitioned from a robust and synchronised expansion to a widespread slowdown. Global growth has weakened on the back of soft investment, which was also a key driver of global trade’s sharp fall into contractionary territory in the first half of 2019 (see Chart A). The slowdown in global investment and trade has occurred in an environment of rising trade tensions between the United States and China, slowing Chinese demand, (geo-)political tensions, Brexit and idiosyncratic stresses in several emerging economies, with rising uncertainty magnifying the negative impact. Against this backdrop, this box assesses the role of uncertainty in the recent slowdown of global investment and trade. JEL Classification: F21, F44, C54

Suggested Citation

  • Bobasu, Alina & Geis, André & Quaglietti, Lucia & Ricci, Martino, 2020. "Tracking global economic uncertainty: implications for global investment and trade," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 1.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2020:0001:1
    Note: 504004
    as

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Breitenlechner, Max & Georgiadis, Georgios & Schumann, Ben, 2022. "What goes around comes around: How large are spillbacks from US monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 45-60.
    2. Gillmann, Niels & Kim, Alisa, 2021. "Quantification of Economic Uncertainty: a deep learning approach," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242421, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    global investment; global trade; Global uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling

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