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Critical minerals as geopolitical pivot: A strategic framework for west African beneficiation

Author

Listed:
  • Job Agba Opue

    (Covenant University, Ota)

  • Ebenezer Bowale

    (Covenant University)

  • Abang Barth Mbia

    (Department of Economics, University of Calabar)

  • Brian Obue Eyang

    (Department of Social Work, University of Calaba)

Abstract

West Africa possesses over 40% of global bauxite reserves and emerging lithium, rare earth, and cobalt deposits essential for the green energy transition. This paper develops a dynamic bargaining model demonstrating how strategic forward contracts with OECD countries can finance domestic beneficiation while mitigating the resource curse. We prove that when resource nationalism takes the form of value-addition requirements rather than export restrictions, a Nash bargaining solution exists that Pareto-dominates both pure extraction and autarkic processing. The model predicts that West Africa can capture 35-45% of the value chain through strategic positioning as a processing hub, compared to 8-12% under raw export regimes. Policy simulations using ECOWAS mineral data suggest that coordinated regional beneficiation infrastructure could attract $12�18 billion in forward-contract financed investment by 2030.

Suggested Citation

  • Job Agba Opue & Ebenezer Bowale & Abang Barth Mbia & Brian Obue Eyang, 2026. "Critical minerals as geopolitical pivot: A strategic framework for west African beneficiation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 46(3), pages 1361-1373.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-26-00966
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    JEL classification:

    • Q3 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation
    • O2 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy

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