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Inaccurate approximations in the modeling of hyper-inflations

Author

Listed:
  • Evens SALIES

    (Observatoire Français des Conjonctures Economiques)

  • Peter MOFFATT

    (University of East Anglia)

Abstract

In time series macroeconometric models, the first difference in the logarithm of a variable is routinely used to represent the rate of change of that variable. It is often overlooked that the assumed approximation is accurate only if the rates of change are small. Models of hyper-inflation are a case in point, since in these models, by definition, changes in price are large. In this letter, Cagan's model is applied to Hungarian hyper-inflation data. It is then demonstrated that use of the approximation in the formation of the price inflation variable is causing an upward bias in the model's key parameter, and therefore an exaggeration of the effect postulated by Cagan.

Suggested Citation

  • Evens SALIES & Peter MOFFATT, 2006. "Inaccurate approximations in the modeling of hyper-inflations," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 28(1), pages 1.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-06aa0001
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    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/pubs/EB/2006/Volume28/EB-06AA0001A.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Hartwell, Christopher A., 2019. "Short waves in Hungary, 1923 and 1946: Persistence, chaos, and (lack of) control," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 532-550.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General

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