Are the New U.S. Composite Leading Economic Indicators More Informative?
This paper uses a normative method to compare the performance of the composite leading economic indicators (CLI) after the measure was revised by the Conference Board in 1996 and 2001 with its prior design to check for a claim that the new design improves its performance in predicting a downturn in the U.S. economy. A comparison of the Bayesian probability forecasts of a downturn for these two designs has shown that the two consecutive post-1996 CLIs have the same amount of information as the four consecutive CLIs of the prior design for correctly predicting/detecting a recession in the U.S. economy, with no false alarm. This finding supports the Conference Board’s claim.
To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Volume (Year): 36 (2001)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 91-11-2766-6533/34/35, 2766-6703/04/05
Web page: http://www.ierdse.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.ierdse.org/ Email: |
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dse:indecr:v:36:y:2001:i:1:p:205-213. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Pami Dua)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.