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Confidence indexes and the probability of recession: a Markov switching model

Author

Listed:
  • Roy Batchelor

    (City University of Business School, London)

Abstract

This paper uses a time-varying parameter Markov switching model to measure linkages between business confidence, consumer confidence, and the state of the economy in the US and the UK. Falling business confidence significantly increases the probability that growth will subsequently fall. Rising consumer confidence significantly increases the probability of recovery. But these relationships do not yield a reliable method for anticipating business cycle turning points.

Suggested Citation

  • Roy Batchelor, 2001. "Confidence indexes and the probability of recession: a Markov switching model," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 107-124, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:dse:indecr:v:36:y:2001:i:1:p:107-124
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    Cited by:

    1. Lahiri, Kajal & Yao, Vincent Wenxiong, 2006. "Economic indicators for the US transportation sector," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(10), pages 872-887, December.
    2. Maximo Camacho & Fernando Soto, 2018. "Consumer confidence’s boom and bust in Latin America," Working Papers 18/02, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    3. Mark J. Holmes & Brian Silverstone, 2010. "Business confidence and cyclical turning points: a Markov-switching approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 229-233, February.
    4. Yao, Vincent W. & Solboda, Brian, 2005. "Forecasting Cycles in the Transportation Sector," 46th Annual Transportation Research Forum, Washington, D.C., March 6-8, 2005 208159, Transportation Research Forum.
    5. Yao, Vincent W. & Sloboda, Brian W., 2005. "Forecasting Cycles in the Transportation Sector," Journal of the Transportation Research Forum, Transportation Research Forum, vol. 44(2).
    6. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2020. "Stock market reactions to domestic sentiment: Panel CS-ARDL evidence," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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