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Deutsche Wirtschaft setzt Aufschwung fort – trotz schwächeren Beschäftigungsaufbaus: Wintergrundlinien 2016

Author

Listed:
  • Ferdinand Fichtner
  • Karl Brenke
  • Marius Clemens
  • Simon Junker
  • Claus Michelsen
  • Maximilian Podstawski
  • Thore Schlaak
  • Kristina van Deuverden

Abstract

In spite of persisting unfavorable external economic conditions, the German economy’s upward trend continues, with a growth of 1.2 percent expected for the coming year – slightly less than the 1.8 percent growth rate of 2016, a difference primarily due to the fact that 2017 has fewer workdays. A growth rate of 1.6 percent is expected for 2018. Although employment growth has slowed down somewhat since this past summer, private consumption remains the German economy’s primary growth driver – but given the higher inflation, this dynamic will lose momentum in the course of the coming quarters. Exports are picking up in the moderately recovering global economy, and this will be even more noticeable lateron in the forecast period. Though investment activity will be somewhat stimulated by the improvement in foreign demand, it will remain rather modest. Die deutsche Wirtschaft setzt in weiterhin schwierigem Umfeld ihre Aufwärtsbewegung fort und dürfte im kommenden Jahr mit 1,2 Prozent etwas schwächer wachsen als 2016 (1,8 Prozent); dies liegt jedoch vor allem an der geringeren Zahl an Arbeitstagen. Im Jahr 2018 werden es voraussichtlich 1,6 Prozent sein. Trotz eines flacheren Beschäftigungsaufbaus seit Sommer 2016 bleibt der private Verbrauch Wachstumstreiber. Angesichts höherer Inflation schwächt sich die Dynamik im Weiteren aber ab. Die Exporte legen im Fahrwasser einer sich etwas erholenden Weltkonjunktur etwas stärker zu, vor allem im späteren Verlauf, und regen dann auch die Investitionstätigkeit an. Diese bleibt aber alles in allem recht verhalten.

Suggested Citation

  • Ferdinand Fichtner & Karl Brenke & Marius Clemens & Simon Junker & Claus Michelsen & Maximilian Podstawski & Thore Schlaak & Kristina van Deuverden, 2016. "Deutsche Wirtschaft setzt Aufschwung fort – trotz schwächeren Beschäftigungsaufbaus: Wintergrundlinien 2016," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 83(50), pages 1177-1188.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwob:83-50-2
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    Keywords

    Business cycle forecast; economic outlook;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook

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