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Zwischen Immobilienboom und Preisblasen: was kann Deutschland von anderen Ländern lernen?

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  • Christian Dreger
  • Konstantin A. Kholodilin

Abstract

When speculative price bubbles on real estate markets burst, the results are often distortions in the real economy, associated with substantial losses in production and employment. This paper discusses the degree to which institutional frameworks can prevent speculative bubbles from forming and expanding. Comparing experiences in different countries, it shows that in Germany institutional regulations are more likely to counteract the risk of undesirable developments. Despite recent price rises, no speculative bubble can currently be identified in Germany- but the danger has increased. In times of debt crisis, real estate is regarded as a safe investment, which boosts demand. And although reintroducing Germany's former subsidy for owner-occupied home purchases would create new housing space, it could also fuel price rises in the property market. A particular problem is the banks' recent tendency to grant mortgages to households on the basis of lower and lower deposits. Das Platzen von spekulativen Preisblasen an den Immobilienmärkten führt oft zu realwirtschaftlichen Verwerfungen, die mit hohen Produktions- und Beschäftigungsverlusten verbunden sind. In diesem Beitrag wird diskutiert, inwieweit institutionelle Rahmenbedingungen das Entstehen und die Aufblähung von Preisblasen verhindern können. Im Vergleich zu den Erfahrungen anderer Länder zeigt sich, dass das institutionelle Regelwerk in Deutschland potenziellen Fehlentwicklungen eher entgegenwirkt. Trotz der jüngsten Preissteigerungen ist eine spekulative Blase für Deutschland derzeit nicht erkennbar. Allerdings haben sich in letzter Zeit die Gefahren verstärkt. So gilt Immobilienbesitz auch in Zeiten der Schuldenkrise als sichere Wertanlage, was die Nachfrage erhöht. Und eine Wiedereinführung der Eigenheimzulage würde nicht nur neuen Wohnraum schaffen, sondern könnte auch die Preisentwicklung an den Immobilienmärkten anheizen. Vor allem ist die jüngste Tendenz der Banken problematisch, Hypothekenkredite mit immer geringeren Eigenkapitalanteilen an Haushalte zu vergeben.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Dreger & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2013. "Zwischen Immobilienboom und Preisblasen: was kann Deutschland von anderen Ländern lernen?," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 80(17), pages 3-10.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwob:80-17-1
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    File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.420104.de/13-17-1.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Andreas Mense & Eva Lohse & Jan Mutl & Heiko Kirchhain & Reiner Braun & Andreas Dombret, 2016. "Steigende Immobilienpreise und steigende Wohnungsnot: Wohnungsmarkt aus dem Gleichgewicht?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(16), pages 03-25, August.
    2. Grabka, Markus M., 2015. "Income and Wealth Inequality after the Financial Crisis: The Case of Germany," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - German National Library of Economics, pages 371-390.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Speculative bubbles; real estate market; fundamental development;

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • L93 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Air Transportation
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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