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Zwischen Immobilienboom und Preisblasen: was kann Deutschland von anderen Ländern lernen?

Listed author(s):
  • Christian Dreger
  • Konstantin A. Kholodilin

When speculative price bubbles on real estate markets burst, the results are often distortions in the real economy, associated with substantial losses in production and employment. This paper discusses the degree to which institutional frameworks can prevent speculative bubbles from forming and expanding. Comparing experiences in different countries, it shows that in Germany institutional regulations are more likely to counteract the risk of undesirable developments. Despite recent price rises, no speculative bubble can currently be identified in Germany- but the danger has increased. In times of debt crisis, real estate is regarded as a safe investment, which boosts demand. And although reintroducing Germany's former subsidy for owner-occupied home purchases would create new housing space, it could also fuel price rises in the property market. A particular problem is the banks' recent tendency to grant mortgages to households on the basis of lower and lower deposits. Das Platzen von spekulativen Preisblasen an den Immobilienmärkten führt oft zu realwirtschaftlichen Verwerfungen, die mit hohen Produktions- und Beschäftigungsverlusten verbunden sind. In diesem Beitrag wird diskutiert, inwieweit institutionelle Rahmenbedingungen das Entstehen und die Aufblähung von Preisblasen verhindern können. Im Vergleich zu den Erfahrungen anderer Länder zeigt sich, dass das institutionelle Regelwerk in Deutschland potenziellen Fehlentwicklungen eher entgegenwirkt. Trotz der jüngsten Preissteigerungen ist eine spekulative Blase für Deutschland derzeit nicht erkennbar. Allerdings haben sich in letzter Zeit die Gefahren verstärkt. So gilt Immobilienbesitz auch in Zeiten der Schuldenkrise als sichere Wertanlage, was die Nachfrage erhöht. Und eine Wiedereinführung der Eigenheimzulage würde nicht nur neuen Wohnraum schaffen, sondern könnte auch die Preisentwicklung an den Immobilienmärkten anheizen. Vor allem ist die jüngste Tendenz der Banken problematisch, Hypothekenkredite mit immer geringeren Eigenkapitalanteilen an Haushalte zu vergeben.

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Article provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its journal DIW Wochenbericht.

Volume (Year): 80 (2013)
Issue (Month): 17 ()
Pages: 3-10

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Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwob:80-17-1
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