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Deutsche Industrie stemmt sich gegen die Krise im Euroraum

Author

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  • Dorothea Lucke

Abstract

Up until the third quarter of 2012, the German manufacturing industry has only just been able to maintain the same production level as in 2011. In the course of the year, it has been faced with a strong decline in demand both in Germany and within the euro area but a slight increase in demand outside the euro area. Consequently, DIW Berlin forecasts industrial production growth of only 0.1 percent for 2012 as a whole. The cornerstones here again proved to be the mechanical engineering and automotive industries which are traditionally strong in Germany and are profiting from a particularly high share of demand from countries outside the euro area. Furthermore, for the first time in six months, improved business forecasts give reason to hope that with new orders received by the end of the year, the German manufacturing sector will have bottomed out and production will gain new impetus. Overall production growth of 2.1 percent can then be expected in 2013. Die Industrie in Deutschland hat bis zum dritten Quartal das Produktionsniveau des Vorjahres knapp halten können. Sie stand einer im Jahresverlauf stark rückläufigen Nachfrage aus dem Inland und dem Euroraum und einer leicht steigenden Nachfrage aus dem Nicht-Euroraum gegenüber. Für das Jahr 2012 rechnet das DIW Berlin deshalb mit einem Wachstum der Industrieproduktion von lediglich 0,1 Prozent. Als Stützpfeiler erweisen sich dabei erneut die in Deutschland traditionell starken Branchen des Maschinen- und Kraftwagenbaus, die von einem besonders hohen Nachfrageanteil aus Ländern außerhalb des Euroraums profitieren. Erstmals seit einem halben Jahr wieder verbesserte Geschäftserwartungen lassen zudem darauf hoffen, dass die deutsche Industrie beim Auftragseingang zum Jahresende die Talsohle durchschreiten wird und die Produktion neue Impulse erhält. Für das Jahr 2013 kann dann insgesamt mit einem Produktionswachstum von 2,1 Prozent gerechnet werden.

Suggested Citation

  • Dorothea Lucke, 2012. "Deutsche Industrie stemmt sich gegen die Krise im Euroraum," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 79(48), pages 16-24.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwob:79-48-3
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    Keywords

    Forecasts; business cycles; industrial production;

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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