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Japan: gesamtwirtschaftliche Erholung bei hoher Staatsverschuldung

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  • Mechthild Schrooten

Abstract

Following the natural and nuclear disaster, the Japanese economy is showing clear signs of recovery with GDP rising strongly again. Public spending programs bolstering domestic demand made a significant contribution to this development. However, this has led to an increase in public debt, which is currently over 230 percent of GDP and predicted to rise further. For some decades now, tax revenues have not been sufficient to cover expenditure. However, Japan is not facing the typical manifestations of a debt crisis. Public debt levels, which are very high by international standards, may have resulted in another downgrading by the Fitch Ratings Agency in May; however, interest rates remain low. This is partly due to the fact that new regulations have curtailed the market power of US credit rating agencies. Die japanische Wirtschaft zeigt nach der Natur- und Atomkatastrophe Erholungserscheinungen. Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt ist wieder kräftig gestiegen. Dazu haben nicht zuletzt staatliche Ausgabenprogramme beigetragen, die die binnenwirtschaftliche Nachfrage stützen. Allerdings hat sich dadurch die Staatsverschuldung erhöht, die inzwischen bei über 230 Prozent des Bruttoinlandsprodukts liegt und weiter zunehmen dürfte. Die Steuereinnahmen reichen schon seit Jahrzehnten nicht aus, um die Ausgaben zu decken. Jedoch sieht sich Japan nicht mit den typischen Erscheinungsformen einer Verschuldungskrise konfrontiert. Die im internationalen Vergleich sehr hohe Staatsverschuldung hat zwar im Mai zu einem erneuten "Downgrading" durch die Ratingagentur Fitch geführt; die Zinsen blieben jedoch auf einem niedrigen Niveau. Dies liegt auch daran, dass Regulierungen die Marktmacht der US-amerikanischen Ratingagenturen beschneiden.

Suggested Citation

  • Mechthild Schrooten, 2012. "Japan: gesamtwirtschaftliche Erholung bei hoher Staatsverschuldung," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 79(32), pages 3-6.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwob:79-32-1
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    Keywords

    Sovereign Debt; Macroeconomic Policy; Fiscal Policy;

    JEL classification:

    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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